Ukraine war latest: 'Bad news' from peace talks, admits US

Dmitry Medvedev has made a Game of Thrones reference, with the US-Russia nuclear arms deal is about to expire (see post at 18:00).

"That's it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the US have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces," he says.

"SALT 1, SALT 2, START I, START II, SORT, New START - all in the past." 

Medvedev accompanies the post with a Game of Thrones photo captioned "WINTER IS COMING". 

Italy has blocked several cyberattacks targeting its foreign ministry facilities, according to foreign minister Antonio Tajani.

"These are actions of Russian origin," he said today. 

"We prevented a series of cyberattacks against foreign ministry sites, starting with Washington and also involving some Winter Olympics sites, including hotels in Cortina."

Emmanuel Macron's most senior diplomat Emmanuel Bonne was in Moscow yesterday to hold talks with Russian officials, sources have told the Reuters news agency.

The source added that it was important to have dialogue between both sides.

The French presidency did not confirm or deny the visit, saying: "As the president said during his doorstop yesterday, discussions exist at a technical level in full transparency and in consultation with President Zelenskyy and with the main European colleagues." 

We reported at 12:45 that the Kremlin said low-level talks between Russia and France were underway, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying there was no announcement on when Vladimir Putin and Macron would talk.

Donald Trump says he had an "excellent" call with China's President Xi Jingping with the two leaders discussing the war in Ukraine. 

The conversation came hours after Xi's virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump is also due to travel to China in April to meet Xi in person. 

The US president adds in a post on his Truth Social platform that the two leaders had "a long and thorough call" about other topics, including trade, military issues, Taiwan, Iran, airplane engine deliveries, and oil and gas purchases by China from the United States.

"I believe that there will be many positive results achieved over the next three years of my Presidency having to do with President Xi," Trump added. 

Trump did not mention whether he discussed a nuclear arms deal with Xi, with US secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier saying any treaty must include China "because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile" (see previous post).

Russia's foreign ministry has addressed the impending expiry of its nuclear arms deal with the US (see the post just below this one).

Moscow says it has never received a formal response from the US to its proposal to comply with the New Start limits, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.

The ministry adds that it will proceed with the assumption that both countries are no longer bound by previous obligations, but Russia intends to act responsibly and in a balanced manner. 

It adds that Russia is ready for countermeasures to reduce any threats once the deal expires.

TASS further reports that Russia remains open to political and diplomatic ways to find a new deal despite the belief that the US deliberately left Moscow's proposal unanswered. 

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said hours before the deal expires tonight that any nuclear deal with Russia needs to include China "because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile". 

The last nuclear treaty between the US and Russia is due to end in a matter of hours. 

Technically, this will remove any constraint on the number of warheads either side can collect - raising the risk of a new arms race.

The New Start Treaty, an agreement signed in 2010 between Moscow and Washington to limit their respective number of nuclear arms, has kept each side to a cap of about 1,500 nuclear weapons and total stockpiles of around 5,000 weapons.

For some context - at the height of the Cold War there were as many as 70,000 nuclear weapons of all shapes and sizes between the two nations.

But unless Washington and Moscow reach a last-minute deal, the world's two biggest nuclear powers will be left with no limits for the first time in more than 50 years.

The exact time New Start expires isn't totally clear, with some believing it will run out at 11pm UK time tonight (midnight in Prague, where it was signed).

But what's for sure is this time tomorrow, the deal as we know it will have run its course.

What Russia says and signals from Trump

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Vladimir Putin discussed the issue in a video call today with Chinese President Xi Jinping, telling him Moscow would act "carefully and responsibly".

"We remain open to exploring avenues for negotiation and ensuring strategic stability," he quoted Putin as saying.

Donald Trump has given different signals on arms control, claiming last month that if the treaty expires, he would reach a better agreement.

But Russian officials say, so far, there has been no response from Washington on a proposal by Putin to extend the limits of the treaty beyond expiry.

A new arms race?

Matt Korda, associate director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the deal's expiry doesn't necessarily mean the start of a new arms race, given the cost of nuclear weapons.

Our own military analyst Michael Clarke has a similar view, which he outlined in this week's Q&A.

"That probably won't change, because that picture is relatively stable and it suits them both," he said on the number of warheads stored by both sides.

The US has given no indication of renewing the treaty but might make a sudden decision "right up to midnight tonight", Clarke added.

In the meantime, it would actually be a good idea to take Putin up on his offer of an extension...

"Generally speaking, the Russians are always trying to make gestures to bring themselves back in from the cold, to make themselves acceptable again to the Western world. 

"On this one, sheer pragmatism says if they're offering a rollover of an essential treaty, take it. Then you've got a year to sort out what we might be able to do about some of the other things."

"Conceptually, today is a big day to the end of the best regime for war limitation that the world has seen," Clarke concluded.

Pope Leo XIV has sent a prayer "for our brothers and sisters in Ukraine".

In a post on X, the Pope says Ukrainians are being "severely tested by the consequences of renewed attacks against energy infrastructure".

"I express my gratitude for solidarity initiatives promoted by the Cahtolic dioceses of Poland and other countries, which help the population endure this period of intense cold," he adds.

We've got more from the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, saying a breakthrough may not come for a while. 

He tells reporters that the Trump administration has made great progress on negotiations compared to this time last year.

"If you look at the checklist of open items that existed at this time last year and the checklist of open items that remain now in terms of reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, that list has been substantially diminished," Rubio says.

"That's the good news. The bad news is that the items that remain are the most difficult ones. And meanwhile the war continues." 

For context: During his election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the war in one day. 

He has been back in office for more than a full year and the war shows no sign of an immediate end.

The first day of US-brokered trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia was "substantive and productive", Ukraine's national security secretary Rustem Umerov says.

In a post that's positive but short on detail the official explains that today's meeting in Abu Dhabi, took place in a "working-group format".

Umerov notes that the US delegation included envoy Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, Josh Gruenbaum, Daniel Driscoll and General Alex Grynkewich.

He says the Russians were represented at a high military level.

"The work was substantive and productive, focused on concrete steps and practical solutions," he adds, without revealing what they might be.

Umerov says he is preparing a report to be sent to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.