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22% house price growth on way, says leading estate agent | Money blog

Average house prices are set to increase by £80,000 over the next five years, according to property firm Savills. Leave your thoughts, and read the rest of today's personal finance and consumer news, below.

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Thousands of homeless people can open bank accounts thanks to UK plan with major banks

A positive post to end the day... Thousands of homeless people will be able to open bank accounts for the first time under a new government pilot.

The scheme works with charity Shelter and major banks: Lloyds, NatWest, Barclays, Nationwide, Santander and HSBC.

HSBC and Shelter previously worked on a similar scheme, which has helped open 7,000 accounts for homeless people since 2019.

The pilot intends to help more people access a bank account by waiving the need for an address. The scheme is part of the government's new Financial Inclusion Strategy.

The Treasury says the plan is about "opening doors", and it could also help victims of domestic abuse and support families with no savings.

Lucy Rigby, the economic secretary to the Treasury, says: "No one should be locked out of the chance to build a better future. 

"Our strategy gives people the tools to get on and boosts the economy by supporting more people back into work through our Plan for Change."

Readers split over 'absurd' Treasury definition of 'working people'

The term "working people " has split Paste BN readers, after deputy political editor Sam Coates reported the Treasury defined them as people earning £45,000 or less.

After we published this survey earlier...

...some wrote in to tell us the government was out of touch for setting the level so low, while others said £45,000 was far too high in their area of the country.

Before we share some of your reactions, though, reader Aaron wanted some clarification...

"Important context is required for your poll of what defines a "working person" - how many people are in each band? What percentage of Brits earn less than £45,000, what percentage earn between £45,000 and £125,000?"

Aaron

How many people earn what in the UK

There's some competing data on this, but we can paint a rough picture, starting with government data on income tax payers in 2024-25:

  • 78.8% earned between £12,571 to £50,270
  • 16.9% earned between £50,271 and £125,140
  • 3% earned more than £125,140

Now, the second bracket (£50,271 and £125,140) is extremely wide and covers very different qualities of life.

An HSBC survey helps us narrow that down, finding only 3.8% of earners take a salary of more than £100,000.

There's also theoretically no limit to how large the £125,140+ bracket could be. 

A 2019 study from the Institute of Fiscal Studies, while relying on older data, gives us a ballpark understanding of how earnings are distributed at the top.

The top 1% of income tax payers earn £160,000; the top 0.5% earn £236,000; and the top 0.1% earn £650,000.

'£45,000 is a joke'

Reader Andrew in Oxford, who is in the top 16.9% of earners, took issue with how the Treasury arrived at its £45,000 figure.

"My salary is £82,000 for a 35-hour week which is a decent salary if the government is to be believed. However, in reality I work 55 hours a week and if you adjust the figures to reflect the true hourly rate I am on the equivalent of £50,000 - am I a working person?"

As did others...

"The working people definition is absurd. Higher rate taxpayers foot the bill for the economy because they work far more hours than the 9-5 assumption that Labour and the cohort of followers seem to believe. Any industry, any position, higher salary=longer hours."

Phil

"The level stated by the Treasury is a joke. I earn £62k a year, I pay lots in taxes that are taken from what I EARN. I work long days/night shifts to earn that, yet I'm not a working person? My wife earns £21k, so between us we are not well off."

Jamie B

"I work as a paramedic in Scotland for over 30 years. We earn over £47k, so we are front line staff, how am I not 'working people'?"

 HMAC

'You're rich if you earn £45,000'

Other readers took the opposite view...

"£45,000 is too high. People who earn this are rich."

Silkin

"Here in the North East you will find that the vast majority of people only earn minimum wage, no matter how skilled their job is. They earn nowhere near £45,000. Minimum wage is a way for employers to get cheap labour and pocket the profits."

Kathleen Scott

"Try living on a good wage in Hull which is £30,000"

Gaz

"I don't earn anywhere near £45,000."

Mikesmith

Some pointed out the Treasury definition omits geography...

"In certain areas of the country (particularly London and the Home Counties) an income of £45,000 is subsistence level, whilst in many areas of the North East and Scotland it would be considered a fortune. Shouldn't the government allow for these regional variations?"

Panopticon

Let's just drop the phrase altogether, said one reader...

"'Working people' are surely those that are working with what ever salary they earn. Let's go back to the word 'working class' if differentiation's have to be made!" 

Mandilifeboats

Average house price expected to hit £440,000 by 2030

Average house prices are set to increase by £80,000 over the next five years, according to property firm Savills.

It forecasts that prices will hit an average of £440,000 by 2030 - growth of just over 22% from today.

Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, says that the upcoming budget "continues to weigh on the market" this year.

In 2026, prices are forecast to increase by 2% (down from 4% previously) - equal to around £7,200.

But growth over the next five years, Savills says, will peak in 2028 and 2029 at 5% and 5.5% respectively.

There's a significant difference in where these price rises will fall, though.

Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East are expected to see the highest rises, with London seeing the lowest.

Could we actually get an interest rate cut tomorrow?

By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business and economics reporter

Less than 24 hours before a decision is made on UK interest rates and the odds are still in favour of a hold - but it's no longer certain.

A hold would mean no change to the cost of borrowing, with the base interest rate staying at 4%. 

There's more jeopardy than before, however. Traders now say there's a 66% chance of rates being unchanged, with a 34% chance of them being reduced, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data. 

Anyone set to remortgage a house in late December or early January will be heartened to hear that a cut is anticipated when the rate-setters meet again on 18 December. 

At that point, economists and traders anticipate the interest rate will be brought below 4%, to 3.75%, for the first time in nearly three years.

Not since January 2023 has the cost of borrowing been so low. 

Why will they fall?

While inflation has remained high, at 3.8%, the expected rise to 4% in September did not materialise. 

Despite inflation being nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target, this stagnation and signs of increasing unemployment have made some analysts - notably those at Goldman Sachs - forecast a cut.

But the majority opinion is backing no change as wage growth remains high and above inflation.  

Nationwide cuts mortgage rates ahead of Bank of England decision - but watch that deposit

Nationwide Building Society is cutting mortgage rates by up to 0.25 percentage points today.

The rate reductions are being made on two, three, five and 10-year fixed-rate products, and include a 3.64%, two-year fixed-rate home mover mortgage for borrowers with a 40% deposit.

The move comes ahead of the next Bank of England base rate decision tomorrow.

"Swap rates are currently sitting around their 30-day lows, so it is possible that more reductions could follow suit," says Caitlyn Eastell, from Moneyfacts.

"However, with the next base rate decision looming, it is not yet certain how the swap markets will react."

She also pointed out the size of the deposit required to take advantage of Nationwide's headline reduced rate, which only applies to loans of £300,000 or more (with a £1,499 fee).

"The borrowers that can afford a 40% deposit may certainly find the headline rate appealing, and if they make regular overpayments on a low rate, that could set them up nicely for when they come to refinance. 

"Remortgage customers will also feel the relief as they could see their monthly repayments drop significantly."

Nationwide will also offer a two-year fixed rate remortgage deal at 3.79%, reduced by 0.15 percentage points, for borrowers with a 40% deposit.

For those with less capital, the building society has reduced its two-year fixed rate with a 10% deposit to 4.79%.

Popular British pub chain still uncertain about future despite growing sales - as pound's woes continue

By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business and economics reporter

A lot has been said about the uncertain future for the British pub - including here on the Money blog - but at one of the UK's largest chains of pubs, at least, people are still drinking. 

At JD Wetherspoon, sales are up nearly 4% (3.7%) from last year when the effect of new pub openings is excluded. 

Bar sales are the biggest contributor to that, with food sales growing at a slower pace.

The outlook is uncertain, however, as it sees a threat from Chancellor Rachel Reeves's forthcoming budget. 

The pub group's chief executive, Tim Martin, has regularly highlighted the higher VAT prices on pub alcohol versus drinking at home, as well as the costs of employing staff, and he continues to make the point.

"The company is pleased with the continued sales momentum but is mindful of the chancellor's budget statement later this month and, as a result, is slightly more cautious in its outlook for the remainder of the year," Martin said in a trading update. 

US market moves

Elsewhere, US markets have retreated from their record highs and are set to fall today.

Major American stock indexes are, based on pre-market trading, expected to drop when they open this afternoon. 

The index of 30 major companies listed on US stock exchanges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), dropped more than 05% at the close yesterday, while the tech-focused Nasdaq shed more than 2%.

The US index containing companies relied on to be stable and profitable, the S&P 500, also lost more than 1%.

It comes as major AI-invested firms like software company Palantir lost 8% and AI computer chip maker Nvidia dropped 4%. 

A major investor, who predicted the collapse of the housing market in 2007, placed a large bet against the stocks (as we reported on Money yesterday).

Pound woes

There's no let-up to the pound's woes, though the slide appears to have paused. 

Sterling has been hanging around the level of a two-and-a-half-year low against the euro, with a pound still buying €1.13. 

Against the dollar, a pound is equal to $1.30, still around the April low when Donald Trump roiled markets with his announcement of country-specific tariffs. 

This year's divisive Coca-Cola Christmas ad is AI generated

If you thought Coca-Cola's famed Christmas lorries looked a little different in this year's holiday ad, you'd be right.

The sparkling red trucks weren't actually in the video - an AI-generated rendering was.

In fact, the whole advert was made using Real Magic AI, the second time the company has used AI in its Christmas adverts, leading to some criticism online.

"Disappointing. Even worse than last year," wrote Mendy Miriam, chief executive of Uncut Media Kenya on LinkedIn.

"What's missing is everything that made the original campaigns timeless; emotion, texture, human warmth. Tech can replicate visuals, but not feeling. This one feels strangely hollow. Awful."

Nusa Studios video editor Sam Gavin said: "I'm not particularly worried about generative AI taking all our jobs when used at this scale, because all this does is make brands look cheap to me."

But Andrew Tindall, senior vice president of marketing research firm System1, said the ad scored top marks in its tests with "millions of people".

"People love it. Exactly the same as last year. No one in proper creative testing knows or cares AI made this ad."

Paste BN has contacted Coca-Cola for comment.

'If I divorce my wife will she get half my private pension - even though she's due a big inheritance?' | Money newsletter

Paste BN has launched a free Money newsletter - bringing the kind of content you enjoy in the Money blog directly to your inbox.

Each Friday, subscribers get exclusive money-saving tips and features from the team behind the award-winning Money blog, which is read by millions of Britons every month.

Sign up today, and this coming Friday you'll find the following in the newsletter - before anywhere else:

  • The £74-£110 a week benefit more than one million older Britons are missing out on;
  • We reveal which sliced supermarket sourdough won our blind taste test - and which are a slur to the name sourdough;
  • Early access to our weekly Money Problem feature: 'If I divorce my wife will she get half my pension - even though she's due inheritance?';
  • And we outline the best deals available in five key areas for your household budget.

So join our growing Money community - and thanks to the thousands of you who already have.

Treasury thinks 'working people' earn less than £45,000 - Money blog readers think very differently

Last week, Paste BN obtained an internal definition of "working people" used by the Treasury.

This is important because Labour pledged not to increase the tax burden on working people in its manifesto.

According to the report from deputy political editor Sam Coates, those earning £45,000 or less qualify as "working people".

But when we surveyed Money blog readers, it was clear the majority had another view.

3,300 people have taken part in the survey - and 79% thought the salary bar for what constitutes a working person was higher than the treasury definition.

In fact, 30% chose the highest option in the survey - that someone on £125,000 could still be regarded as a working person.

A further 11% said £100,000, and 18% £75,000.

20% picked the higher rate tax threshold of £50,270.

Just 9% agreed with the £45,000 level the Treasury is apparently using.

12% opted for the median UK salary of £37,430. 

Your neighbour's roof may be pushing up your energy bills

Your neighbour's roof might be driving up your energy costs this autumn, according to an expert.

Jeff Berzolla, chief executive of Instant Roofer, warns terraced or semi-detached property owners are particularly at risk.

Poor roof insulation or damaged tiles in your neighbour's house can allow heat from your home to escape through shared loft spaces and wall cavities, he says.

"Think of it like trying to heat a house with the windows open," says Berzolla. 

"When there's inadequate insulation next door, your warm air finds a way to escape through connected spaces. Your boiler doesn't know the difference - it just knows it needs to work harder to maintain your target temperature."

The problem becomes worse if your neighbour has missing or broken roof tiles, creating gaps that allow cold air to circulate.

These tiles, as well as moss and clogged gutters, can also compromise shared drainage systems and increase humidity levels across connected homes.

"We see this constantly in our assessments," says Berzolla.

"When gutters overflow or drainage fails on one property, it affects the whole row."

Even the colour of their roof can have an effect, with a light-coloured one reflecting heat that could warm the area around both properties.

If you think solar panels will help keep bills low, make sure to take note of any tall roof extensions, dormer windows or poorly planned installations next door too, adds Berzolla.