By Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

"Prevent has got to adapt, just as radicalization is adapting," Lord Anderson, the Interim Independent Prevent Commissioner, told Paste BN.

Lord David highlighted the decrease in referrals of those with a "fully developed" ideology compared to a rise in those whose extremism is drawn "from a bit of this and a bit of that".

There were 5,341 referrals made for individuals with no specific ideology, or multiple ideologies where none was dominant, in the latest year – 61% of the total 8,778 referrals made.

This is compared to 2,668 referrals of those with a specific 'extreme right wing' or 'Islamist extremist' ideology.

However, these referrals are far less likely to be adopted as cases by the Channel programme - which provides a multi-agency approach to support people susceptible to radicalisation.

Only 330 of 4,917 referrals where no specific ideology was identified were adopted by the panel, compared to 738 cases of right wing and Islamist ideologies, despite these representing a smaller number of overall referrals.

Those with right wing ideologies were most likely to have their case taken up, with one in three referrals adopted by the Channel programme.

However, those with no specific ideology but a fascination with extreme violence may still be "very dangerous", Lord David added.

They require mentors who are younger, have a better understanding online world, and have expertise in mental health and neurodiversity conditions which affect one in three people referred to the programme, he said.

The Bank of England has held the base rate at 4%.

Analysts have been saying a cut will instead come in December - when the effects of the 26 November budget will be clearer.

The rate, which acts as a guide for banks and other lenders, hasn't been below 4% since the start of 2023.

Lower-than-expected inflation of 3.8% in September, softer wage growth and a slowing of economic activity have all increased calls for a cut.

The decision to hold the base rate at 4% was made by the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The Bank of England will hold a news conference at 12.30pm explaining its decision.

In other news this morning, the Bank also said that inflation has peaked and is expected to fall to nearly 3% next year before returning to it's target of 2% in 2027.

The justice secretary has commented, following a prisoner handing himself back in after being mistakenly released three days ago.

David Lammy said: "William Smith is back in custody. 

"The spike in mistaken releases is unacceptable. 

"We're modernising prison systems - replacing paper with digital tools to cut errors. 

"We're working with police to recapture Brahim Kaddour-Cherif."

Cherif was mistakenly released on Wednesday 29 October, and this was not discovered until 4 November, and became public yesterday.

Lammy has been heavily criticised following the mistaken releases, with his Tory counterpart, Robert Jenrick, accusing him of a "dereliction of duty" and of having "disappeared" since the accidental releases were revealed. 

Former justice secretary Michael Gove also suggested that Lammy "doesn't really command the confidence that, ideally, we'd all like to see in the criminal justice system".

William 'Billy' Smith has been returned to prison, three days after he was accidentally released, Paste BN understands.

The 35-year-old fraudster was mistakenly set free from HMP Wandsworth on Monday.

Smith appeared via video link at Croydon Crown Court from the prison on Monday, and was sentenced to 45 months behind bars for multiple fraud offences.

But in a mistake, he was then subsequently set free the same day. 

His accidental release was only revealed publicly yesterday. 

It is understood that following this, he has turned himself in to staff at the prison.

A second prisoner, Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, who was accidentally released from the same prison on Wednesday 29 October, remains at large - and the manhunt for him continues.

Prison governors have hit out at "politicians attempts to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis".

In a public statement following the news that multiple criminals have been wrongly released from HMP Wandsworth over the past few days, the Prison Governors Association (PGA) has sought to add some context.

Specifically on people being let out incorrectly (called 'releases in error', REIs), the association said: "Currently, around 0.5% of prisoners are not released on the correct date. 

"While that may appear to be a small percentage, in a system managing tens of thousands of releases and transfers each quarter, it does represent a significant operational failure."

But in a warning to the government, it added: "The conditions required to reduce this figure to zero simply do not exist."

The governors explained: "Achieving a zero-error outcome would demand substantial investment in staff training, modern IT infrastructure, and recruitment, all within a system already stretched by competing priorities. 

"Successive governments have accepted this level of risk for decades. 

"In that context, it feels disingenuous to see politicians attempt to extract political gain from a prison system in crisis."

They also warned that while "political parties showboat and grandstand, the real risk to the public is not being effectively managed".

The PGA also pointed out that:

• REIs are openly reported annually and have "occurred under every government's watch"
• The prison system and wider criminal justice system is "under unprecedented and sustained pressure"
• Overcrowding remains acute in prisons, with some sites operating way above their safe capacity - with 10,000 prisoners in overcrowded conditions
• The number of erroneous releases is "deeply concerning", with some prisoners being released late, as well as early
• Prisons are "high-risk environments" and it is "unrealistic to expect a struggling, violent prison system to single-handedly reduce reoffending"
• Levels of violence in prisons are rising, both towards staff and in terms of self-harm among prisoners

The governors concluded that there is "no silver bullet to improve safety outcomes".

 "What works in one prison can produce adverse effects in another. 

"We continue to advocate for greater autonomy and operational freedom for our members — provided they are properly funded to do so." 

The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it's extremely bad luck, rather than an act of incompetence by ministers. 

But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government's door.

Critics of the justice secretary and deputy prime minister, standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, claim this sorry episode reveals his pomposity, inability to think on his feet and a tendency to blame others for a fiasco.

And it's not as if the accidental prison releases that have shocked the nation and outraged public opinion in recent weeks are the only fiascos on the government's watch. 

For example:

1. The asylum seeker deported on the government's 'one in, one out deal' with France who then returned to the UK on a small boat across the Channel was another case of a policy that critics claim isn't working.

2. The furore over the tax rises expected in Rachel Reeves' budget can be attributed to what now looks like a strategic error in promising no rises in income, VAT or national insurance in Labour's election manifesto.

3. The chancellor's failure to apply for a local authority licence to rent out her home in London's leafy suburbs revealed a lack of judgment on her part, on top of her dodgy CV about her jobs before becoming an MP.

4. Angela Rayner's careless approach to stamp duty requirements on her luxury beachfront flat that forced her resignation triggered a botched reshuffle that caused resentment among ministers and MPs.

5. The appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador - described by ministers as "a risk worth taking" - despite his links to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, always looked like an accident waiting to happen.

The list goes on.

As we've just been hearing this morning, the government has recorded a record number of referrals to Prevent, it's anti-extremism scheme, in the year to March 2025.

The headline figures are that most of these referrals came from the education sector, that the majority (65%) were white and that there were more than double the number of people referred for 'extreme right-wing' concerns compared to those about 'Islamist extremism', which is falling.

But there is also some interesting data in terms of the number of referrals to Prevent, which went on to be adopted by Channel, the government's body for dealing with vulnerable people being drawn into terrorism.

The figures show the majority of referrals that went on to be Channel cases were for ‘extreme right-wing concerns' (612 out of 1464 - 42%).

Meanwhile, 226 (15%) were for concerns related to 'Islamist Extremism'.

The 'no ideology' type of concern categories ('no ideology – other susceptibility to radicalisation identified' and 'no ideology identified') accounted for the largest proportion of referrals.

These made up 56% (4,917) of all referrals to Channel.

There was also a sharp increase in the number of cases discussed by the Channel panel - 1,727 up from 893 the year before, and, 1472 were adopted as cases.

But a word of caution over these figures, as this is believed to be largely due to a change in methodology.

8,778 individuals have been referred to Prevent, the government's anti-extremism scheme, in the year to March 2025.

It's the highest number ever recorded since records began in 2015, when the statutory Prevent duty was placed on authorities. 

It is also a 26% increase from the 6,922 referrals the year before.

Where are referrals coming from?

The education sector made the highest share of referrals as it has done in all reported data (3,129 -36%).

But this represented a small decrease in proportion from 40% of referrals the year before. 

The second-highest share of referrals was from police forces (2,631; 30%), which increased by 37% compared with the previous year (1,921; 28%). 

Referrals from local authorities had the largest percentage increase (54% from 582 to 895).

By contrast, referrals from the community and from friends and family were the only groups to show decreases, falling by 25% and 7% respectively.

New data on ethnicity

For the first time, data about those referred to the Prevent scheme now includes details about their ethnicity.

For those referrals where ethnicity was specified, 65% (2,747) of referrals were recorded as White, 19% (798) Asian, 8% (320) Black and 8% (338) other.

More people referred for right wing extremism than for Islamist extremism

'Extreme Right-Wing' concerns accounted for 21% (1,798) of referrals, higher than those related to 'Islamist Extremism' (10%; 870).

Compared with the previous year, the proportion of referrals for 'Extreme Right-Wing' concerns increased (up from 19%; 1,314 of 6,921), while the proportion for 'Islamist Extremism' decreased (down from 13%; 913 of 6,921).

One third of referrals have mental health conditions

The data also shows one third of Prevent referrals had at least one mental health or neurodiversity (2,995 out of 8,778).

Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) was the most common condition. But two thirds of all referrals had no mental health information recorded - either because no concern was identified, or data wasn't captured.

The shadow justice secretary has expressed his disappointment that Maccabi Tel Aviv will be playing their away game against Aston Villa tonight without any fans. 

It follows Birmingham's Safety Advisory Group banning the Israeli club's supporters from attending over "safety fears", with West Midlands Police deeming the match a "high risk event".

That decision has been condemned by the government, as well as the Tories, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

Robert Jenrick tells Paste BN that he thinks that decision was "a really big mistake".

He adds: "There should be no 'no-go' areas for foreign citizens or for people of certain religions in any part of our country.

"When this was made public, the prime minister, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, they all said they were aghast, and they were going to do everything in their power to stop it from happening. And they failed, haven't they? That's the truth. No fans will be present. 

"This part of Birmingham is now going to be known to many people in our country somewhere that they shouldn't feel safe to walk the streets, and that's wrong. It's got to change."

Robert Jenrick has criticised the government for a rapidly rising number of people being accidentally released from prisons in England and Wales.

The shadow justice secretary says: "The number of people, criminals, who are being released accidentally from our prisons has increased dramatically.

"Over the last ten years, the number of criminals being released, accidents, has averaged 57 a year. Now, I'm not defending that; 57 is 57 too many.

"But there's been 130% increase in a single year under Labour. Why is that?

"I don't know the answer as to what's happened. I can surmise that Labour chose to do an early release scheme that was botched. It was poorly planned, disastrously implemented, and that has created such an administrative burden on the prison service that they're now making these mistakes - not every week or every couple of weeks, as was happening before, completely unacceptable though that was - but on an almost daily basis.

"This is endangering the public, we've got to find an answer to that."

But challenged whether he shares some of the responsibility for this, Jenrick admits: "I think the state of the prison service has been unacceptable for a very long time... including under the last Conservative government."