Why SNP election success could spell trouble for the future of the UK
A good result for the Conservatives in England may be a bad result for the future of the union, says Andrew McFadyen.
Wednesday 19 April 2017 17:04, UK
"Now is not the time" has become a familiar phrase in Scottish politics.
The soundbite Theresa May used to reject a second independence referendum was carefully crafted and tested with focus groups.
A senior source said the Conservatives wanted to put as many barriers in the way of another vote as possible - but it was crucial that they did not alienate the voters in the middle.
Scottish politics has become a battle about who can appear the most reasonable.
Language is crucial. Billy Connolly once quipped that his local football team lost so often that he thought they were called "Partick Thistle nil".
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Unionist politicians have adopted "divisive referendum" as another linked phrase. The words are always spoken together to remind Scots about the negative aspects of another poll.
But the SNP is asking, if "now is not the time" for a referendum, why is it the right time for a General Election?
Suddenly, the Prime Minister does not look so reasonable.
The coming election will test everybody's mandate - Nicola Sturgeon's mandate to demand a vote on independence and Theresa May's mandate to refuse it.
Expectations of a Conservative revival in Scotland are high. According to some opinion polls, Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson is the most popular politician in the country.
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The party is competitive again in areas like Aberdeenshire, Perthshire and Tayside, where they have rediscovered a social base in rural No-voting Scotland.
Despite genuine cause for Tory optimism, an early election is still a risk.
It is a political truism in by-elections that parties are punished for dragging voters to the polls unnecessarily. Canvassers are already reporting resentment on the doorsteps.
The Conservatives should fear the reaction of voters who believed Theresa May when she said Scotland was not ready for another divisive campaign.
The SNP will spend the next seven weeks turning her own words back at her.
Nicola Sturgeon is defending an incredibly high base, with 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland.
If she comes even close then she will be knocking down the door of Downing Street and her demands will be much more difficult to resist.
In these circumstances, a good result for the Conservatives in England could be a bad result for the UK.
Putting Labour out of power for a generation would tell Scots that if they want a different type of politics they have to vote for independence.
A bigger majority means Theresa May could eventually end up leading a smaller country.