What the handwritten Brexit memo really means

Officials say our model is to "have cake and eat it", but what do the scrawled notes photographed on a secret document outside Number 10 tell us about the state of Brexit talks?

1.    "What's the model? Have cake and eat it"

This is Boris Johnson's position - he said in his first interview as Foreign Secretary that "our policy is having our cake and eating it".

He was responding to the charge that Britain could not cut immigration without leaving the single market, which entails free movement of people.

Mr Johnson declared that Britain is seeking both immigration controls and free trade with the EU.

This approach has been slapped down in the EU, not least by its chief Brexit negotiator, French politician Michel Barnier, who has said in return for single market access Britain would have to retain free movement "without exception or nuance".

Which brings us on to the French.

2.    "French likely to be most difficult"

The notes suggest negotiations on a free trade deal with our EU partners will stumble on services.

It says: "Manufacturing relatively straightforward; services harder because French hoping for business."

No deal on services would be a major problem because services make up 80% of Britain's economy, and the clear risk is corporate giants relocate to other parts of Europe.

There's also criticism of the "very French negotiating team" including Mr Barnier, saying Britain needs "fair process guaranteed".  

France, heading into a presidential election, has the spectre of Marine le Pen and her promises of "Frexit" on the horizon and has always been a tough critic of Britain's less-than-committed attitude to the EU. 

3.    "It's unlikely we'll be offered single market"

This is what we suspected that in order to curb immigration, stop contributing billions to the EU Budget and escape the remit of European judges, the UK can't stay in the single market or would at least have to negotiate free trade deals sector by sector.

That's why both Labour and Conservative politicians have been talking about "maximum access" and "operating in" the market rather than full membership.

But the fact it's already apparently being written off will give the City some jitters.

Theresa May told business leaders last week that she acknowledged their fears about the "cliff edge" of leaving, which has prompted discussion about how long leaving the EU might actually take. 

4.    "Transitional - loathe to do it"

EU insiders know that free trade deals tend to take years to negotiate.

This memo says the UK is looking at a "Canadian deal and adding to it". That's a reference to the CETA free trade deal struck between the EU and Canada this year which took seven years of wrangling to negotiate and was nearly blocked by local officials in the Walloon region on Belgium, who get a veto.

Understandably, ministers are "loathe" to admit publicly that any transitional period will be required.

But the notes suggest this approach is gaining currency in Whitehall.

They say: "Whitehall will hold onto it. We need to bring an end to the negotiation" also apparently revealing that those involved in the discussions are not Whitehall officials, but politicians.

That may be the aim but if we want a Canada-style deal - the notes also reveal that a Norway-style arrangement inside the single market is not preferable - ministers will need to clarify whether it could take some time. 

5.    "The headlines won't change"

The notes wielded by an aide to Mark Field MP are just the latest - and one of the most significant - example of an officials not covering up confidential documents.

The Government insists this doesn't represent their position, but the aide was leaving Number 9 Downing Street, David Davis' Department for Exiting the EU, after talks and going into Number 10.

And while the Government is determined not to give a "running commentary" on the negotiations, nuggets like these will be seized on.

The notes make clear they have no intention of giving any more direction on Brexit until we trigger the divorce proceedings in four months' time.

It says: "The headlines won't change for now, until March". That aspiration is certainly out of the window. 

:: Government could face another Brexit legal challenge