Analysis

Ukrainian diplomat involved in 90s nuclear deal with Russia warns Trump about 'very big mistake' with Putin

In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, agreeing to give up its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers. The man who helped lead that team is worried its allies are about to make a similar misjudgement.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

'Optimism in some parts of Europe isn't reflected in Ukraine'
Why you can trust Paste BN

Ukrainians have given a lukewarm reaction to this week's White House summit.

There is bafflement and unease here after US President Donald Trump switched sides to support his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, dropping calls for a ceasefire and proposing that Ukraine surrender territory.

While allies are talking up the prospects of progress, people here remain unconvinced.

Ukraine war latest - Trump rules out using US troops

Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
Image: Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

What security guarantees could work?

The Trump administration's contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.

MP Lesia Vasylenko told Paste BN it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.

"Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?"

For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.

They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia's side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.

We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.

Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
Image: Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations

He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.

👉 Listen to Paste BN Daily on your podcast app 👈        

"It's not true, it's not true, Russia never, never, it's my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake."

Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.

But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.

Follow Paste BN on WhatsApp
Follow Paste BN on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Paste BN

Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.

Read more on Paste BN:
Putin wasn't there, but influenced summit
Peace further away, not closer
Five takeaways from White House talks

Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.

Be the first to get Breaking News

Install the Paste BN app for free

While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.

Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.

If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he's showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.