Ukraine war latest: Trump says 'Putin's going to drop out' if Europe listens to him on oil

While the focus remains on Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, a group of leading analysts suggests the Kremlin has launched a "coordinated information" campaign targeting another of its neighbouring countries that has echoes of the rhetoric employed before the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says senior figures in Moscow, including members of Vladimir Putin's inner circle, have been making a series of statements designed to threaten Finland.

Finland, which has an 833-mile border with Russia, abandoned its longstanding policy of neutrality in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and joined NATO in 2023.

The US thinktank quotes Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying yesterday that the Finnish government's "neutral veneer peeled off" and that revanchism (a policy of seeking to retaliate, especially to recover lost territory) is "literally on the rise" in Finland.

Another senior figure, Sergei Ivanov, said yesterday that Russian-Finnish relations "practically do not exist" and will not improve in the near future as Finland is a NATO member and is "actively calling for strengthening [its] eastern border".

He also claimed the Finnish population was unsatisfied with the Finnish government and alleged that the lack of Russian tourists has led to "depopulation" and a weakening economy in southeastern Finland.

Alexei Chepa, deputy head of the Russian state duma's international affairs committee, is also cited as making similar remarks yesterday.

The ISW reports Russian state media outlets "notably amplified" Lavrov's, Ivanov's, and Chepa's statements, and said this along with the similar wording in the claims "suggests that this is a concerted top-down Kremlin informational effort targeting Finland".

The thinktank's analysts continue: "High-ranking Kremlin officials have increased threats against Finland in recent weeks, including by using language that mirrors the Kremlin's false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine.

"ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine."

The head of MI6 has said that he sees "no evidence" that Vladimir Putin has any interest in a negotiated peace with Ukraine.

Sir Richard Moore has been speaking in Istanbul as he announces plans to use the dark web to recruit informants and receive secret information from agents in Russia and worldwide (see previous post).

He added that Putin has "bitten off more than he can chew" and underestimated Ukrainians in the war.

Back here in the UK, MI6 is launching a new dark web portal to recruit spies.

The secure messaging platform Silent Courier aims to boost national security by making it easier for the intelligence agency to recruit potential agents in Russia and around the world, the Foreign Office said.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said: "As the world changes, and the threats we're facing multiply, we must ensure the UK is always one step ahead of our adversaries."

Silent Courier is accessible from today and enables a secure avenue to submit sensitive information to the UK relating to terrorism or hostile intelligence activity.

Instructions on how to use the portal - including recommendations to use trustworthy VPNs and devices not linked to users - will be available on MI6's verified YouTube channel.

We can bring you more on the overnight strikes on Ukraine now, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russia used nearly 90 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle drones for strikes.

"Our warriors managed to neutralise most of them," he wrote on social media.

Zelenskyy said Russia targeted the Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Dnipro regions overnight.

He added that two people were injured in Dnipro and recovery efforts are ongoing in Kyiv.

"Once again, the Russians strike civilians at a time when the entire world – and above all the United States – is calling for peace," Zelenskyy said. 

"We hear President Trump's position on ending the killings, and we have agreed to all the proposals to unblock diplomacy. But it seems this position is not being heard in Russia."

Ukraine's president said large-scale agreements on drones and arms procurement are "on the table".

"Decisive action is needed so that Russia ultimately agrees to diplomacy as well," he added.

Fragments from a downed Russian drone caused some damage to transport infrastructure in Kyiv overnight, according to a city official.

The head of the capital's military administration said drone fragments had fallen in several locations, including on a road in the central Shevchenkivsky district.

"The trolley bus network has been damaged," Tymur Tkachenko wrote in a post on Telegram.

"According to preliminary reports, there are no injuries."

Two air raid alerts were announced in quick succession shortly after midnight, while mayor Vitali Klitschko said fragments also fell in another district.

Donald Trump said he is trying to get Bagram air base in Afghanistan back during his news conference with Keir Starmer yesterday.

Speaking during his answer on the war in Ukraine, the US president said the Soviet-built airstrip was the main base for American forces in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks until their withdrawal in 2021.

"One of the biggest air bases in the world, we gave it to them for nothing," he told reporters.

"We're trying to get it back because they need things from us, we want that base back.

"But one of the reasons we want the base is, as you know, it's an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons."

However, an Afghan foreign ministry official said the country was not open to such a move.

"Afghanistan and the United States need to engage with one another... without the United States maintaining any military presence in Afghanistan," Zakir Jalal wrote in a post on X.

We're covering Afghanistan elsewhere on Paste BN today - tap below to read a piece from our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes on claims some Afghans used the fallout of British withdrawal to exaggerate their asylum applications.

Back to that news conference with Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump at Chequers yesterday, where our political editor Beth Rigby asked the US president if it was time to "squeeze" and "scare" Vladimir Putin.

Trump replied by saying that "very simply" if the oil price drops, "Putin's going to drop out, he's going to have no choice, he's going to drop out of that war".

The president went on to refer to European nations that are buying oil from Russia, saying "you can't do that".

"I'm willing to do other things, but not when the people that I'm fighting for are buying oil from Russia," Trump added.

"If the oil price comes down, very simply, Russia will settle."

Trump previously said the war in Ukraine would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia.

Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.

Watch Rigby's question to Trump below

Shortly after Donald Trump made those comments on Vladimir Putin (see previous post), Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on social media calling for pressure to be ramped up on the Russian president.

"Strong pressure does work," he wrote in a post on X after thanking Australia for lowering the price cap on Russian oil and sanctioning vessels in its shadow fleet.

"Now we look forward to a strong 19th EU sanctions package and decisive steps from the United States.

"Russia will stop the war only if pressure against it is sufficiently painful."

Donald Trump took aim at Vladimir Putin when asked about the Russian president in his news conference at Chequers yesterday afternoon.

He told reporters that Putin "really let me down" but still maintained optimism that the US will be able to help bring the war between Russia and Ukraine to an end.

Read his answer in full below:

I'm very honoured to tell you that we've solved seven wars, seven wars, wars that were unsolvable, wars that couldn't be negotiated or done. The US has done seven of them. The one that I thought would be easiest would be because of my relationship with President Putin. But he's let me down. He's really let me down. But we'll see how that turns out. I thought it might be among the easiest of the group, but we settle just about every conflict. And, as you know, we're working very hard on Israel and Gaza. All that's happening over there, complex. But it's going to get done, we'll get it done and likewise, Russia and Ukraine will get done.

You can also watch the moment in the video below.