Ukraine war latest: Russia threatening Finland 'in same way it targeted Ukraine before invasion'; MI6 boss gives Putin verdict

Russia is threatening a European neighbour in a way that mirrors how it targeted Ukraine before invading, leading analysts have warned. Elsewhere, MI6's chief has given his verdict on Vladimir Putin. Follow the latest below.

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Meeting being planned between Lavrov and Rubio at UN - report

A meeting between US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is being planned at the United Nations General Assembly, according to Russian news agency TASS.

It comes after Lavrov said that he expects new contacts between Moscow and Washington over the war in Ukraine.

"We parted ways with the understanding that in Anchorage we accepted the logic promoted by Trump based on an understanding of root causes and our position," he told Russia's Pervyy TV channel, referring to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

"He did not refute this logic. Trump said he would consult with his allies."

In depth: Trump says Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than Ukraine's. Is he right - and what does this mean?

As mentioned a little earlier, among the comments made by Donald Trump during his appearance alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday was one referencing the relative number of deaths in the Ukraine war.

While conceding that Vladimir Putin "has let me down", the US president said: "He's killing many people, and he's losing more people than he's killing.

"Frankly, the Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than the Ukrainian soldiers."

The remarks represent a significant shift in tone from Trump towards Putin, who many observers accuse the US leader of appeasing - while simultaneously being manipulated by his Russian counterpart.

However, what was unclear was whether the comments also offered us valuable insight into more recent US intelligence assessments of the relative rate of casualties among Russian and Ukrainian forces.

Are more Russian than Ukrainian soldiers being killed?

While it is notoriously difficult to establish casualty numbers with absolute confidence, something that all estimates appear to confirm is that Russia has lost many more service members since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion in 2022.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies released in June indicated that nearly one million Russian casualties had been recorded - a grisly milestone that Ukrainian officials subsequently said had been passed later that month.

Perhaps predictably, this figure was denied by the Kremlin.

In January, US Intelligence officials estimated that 700,000 Russian soldiers had been killed.

This compares to the figure of around 400,000 Ukrainian casualties estimated by CSIS, the UK's Ministry of Defence and US officials.

Why are casualty numbers so difficult to determine?

The number of people killed on each side is a closely guarded state secret, subject to manipulation for strategic and propaganda purposes.

As is the case in all conflicts, the two nations have motivations to inflate enemy casualties while minimising their own.

The situation is further confused by the different methodologies employed by organisations and analysts to make the estimates - with some producing inconsistent results with varying degrees of reliability.

There is also the problem of incomplete data. Many injured and killed soldiers are left on the battlefield, and it is widely suggested that Ukraine's large number of missing-in-action personnel further complicates accurate accounting.

Why are so many more Russian soldiers being killed?

Given Russia's advantage in terms of military might and resources in general, Ukraine might be expected to have suffered more casualties than its invaders.

However, a number of factors have led to the wide disparity in the number of service members killed.

Firstly and arguably most importantly, forces that are on the offensive - as is the case for Russia's invading troops - generally tend to lose more troops.

Analysts have also suggested that Moscow is more prone to deploying large numbers of soldiers to the frontline in an effort to gain an advantage - but in a way that leaves those soldiers more vulnerable.

Other significant reasons include the apparent lack of effective preparation and planning from Russia before launching its invasion, which had a number of knock-on effects.

Most commentators say Putin and his senior military officials drastically underestimated Ukraine - both in practical terms and regarding morale and the level of motivation to defend their homeland - resulting in a shambolic start to the conflict for Russia's army.

This also allowed Kyiv plenty of time to mobilise and prepare.

While the US has withdrawn much of its support for Ukraine since Trump returned to power following his election win almost a year ago, the country has benefited from Western support and intelligence information.

Does this mean Ukraine is winning the war?

In short, no.

Russia's population (around 143 million) is four times bigger than Ukraine's (38 million), allowing Moscow to increase the size of its invading forces despite the high rate of casualties.

It has also conducted its first draft since the Second World War, with prisoners among those enlisted in the army - while people accused of crimes have had charges dismissed in exchange for them agreeing to sign up.

There are also the estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers sent to fight alongside Moscow's forces in Ukraine.

In January, a military analyst familiar with Western assessments told the New York Times there were more than 400,000 Russians facing about 250,000 Ukrainians across the front - and that the gap between the armies was growing.

Putin said yesterday that 700,000 Russian service members were currently on the frontlines - although that claim should be viewed with some suspicion, for reasons outlined above.

So is it just a matter of time until Russia triumphs?

The consensus among experts is that Russia has held the initiative in the war for the better part of the last 12 months, despite its high number of casualties.

Having said this, leading thinktank the Institute for the Study of War says a Russian victory "is not inevitable".

"Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations," the analysts said in their latest update on the conflict.

"Russian gains on the battlefield have come at a high cost... Russian forces have been advancing at a creeping pace throughout 2025, and Russia's casualty rates have been disproportionately high compared to the amount of territory seized."

In pictures: Funeral held for Ukrainian serviceman in Kyiv

Over in Kyiv, a funeral ceremony has been held for a Ukrainian serviceman this morning.

People could be seen kneeling down either side of Artem Antonenko's coffin as it passed by, draped in a Ukrainian flag.

EU proposes 19th sanctions package against Russia amid Trump's growing pressure over oil

The European Commission has said that it has proposed the European Union's 19th sanctions package targeting Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The commission's president Ursula von der Leyen and the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas are expected to present details of the package later today.

The plan will then need to be approved by all 27 EU member states.

EU sources have told Reuters that the commission will propose banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports by 1 January 2027, a year earlier than planned, as part of its latest package.

It comes after recent comments from Donald Trump, urging NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia to help end the war in Ukraine.

Yesterday, the US president told our political editor Beth Rigby that if the oil price drops, "Putin's going to drop out, he's going to have no choice, he's going to drop out of that war".

Watch Rigby's question and Trump's full answer in the video below.

Watch: MI6 chief says Russia 'grinding forward at a snail's pace and at horrendous cost'

The head of MI6  has said Russian forces are grinding forward on the battlefield but "at a snail's pace and a horrendous cost".

Sir Richard Moore said Vladimir Putin "seeks to impose his imperial will by all means at his disposal but he cannot succeed".

"Russia simply does not have the wherewithal to fully subjugate Ukraine by force," he added.

"The issue has, and has always been, sovereignty. Putin denies Ukraine's sovereignty and its very existence as a country and a nation," he warned.

Watch his comments and analysis from our special correspondent Alex Crawford in the video below.

Russian forces take control of two eastern Ukrainian villages, defence ministry says

Russia's defence ministry has said that its forces have taken control of two villages in eastern Ukraine.

State news agency TASS reported that Russia has taken control of Muravka, a village in the Donetsk region, and the village of Novoivanivka in the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia area.

Paste BN could not independently verify the report.

Russia developing $5bn alternative to Musk's Starlink

Russia is developing a $5bn alternative to the Starlink satellite internet service, according to a draft seen by the Russian state-controlled news agency RBC.

The project aims to challenge Elon Musk's SpaceX company, whose Starlink devices have been playing a "crucial role" in securing Ukraine's communications during the war, as the Kyiv Independent reports.

"Several test satellites in orbit have already been inspected, and the serial models have been modified accordingly," Dmitry Bakanov, head of Russia's space agency Roscosmos said in an interview.

It is reported that the project will be carried out by a private space company called Bureau 1440.

The company is expected to launch 383 satellites by 2030.

Ukrainian strike on Russian oil refinery will 'echo deep into the Kremlin's coffers'

Earlier, we told you about Russia's overnight strikes on six regions across Ukraine (see 8.10 post).

It came the day after Ukraine struck a Gazprom refinery in Russia's Bashkortostan Republic, according to a source from Ukraine's security service.

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat is one of Russia's largest oil refining and petrochemical plants and is situated some 1,300km from the front line.

"Russia could lose $600m in just one month in just one month after Ukrainian drones struck Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat," a former chief of the National Bank of Ukraine has said.

"The refinery risks forfeiting 9-10 million barrels of processing capacity - a single strike echoing deep into the Kremlin's coffers," Kyrylo Shevchenko said.

MI6 chief sees 'no evidence' Putin is interested in a negotiated peace

By Alex Crawford, special correspondent, in Istanbul

The outgoing MI6 chief has said - in his final speech as head of the UK's foreign intelligence agency - that he sees "no evidence" Russian leader Vladimir Putin has "any interest in a negotiated peace short of Ukrainian capitulation". 

In a speech sometimes tinged with emotion and packed with pride about his years leading the agency, Sir Richard Moore told a small group of invited guests in Istanbul where he once served as ambassador and where one of his children was born, how he believes Putin is "stringing us along". 

His successor, Blaise Metreweli - the first woman appointed to the position as 'C' (as the agency's leader is nicknamed) - was in the audience to hear him appeal to Russian citizens to help the British spy on the Kremlin. 

"To those men and women in Russia who have truths to share and the courage to share them, I invite you to contact M16," Sir Richard implored. "You will be working to bring peace to our continent; to protect the long-term interests and redeem the honour of your country". 

Sir Richard went on to assure the Russian citizens who might be tempted that "we will do everything to keep you safe".

The decision to move into the dark web to encourage the sharing of information comes as peace in Ukraine seems as far away as ever. 

The spy chief - who has been at the helm for five years - identified Russia alongside China and Iran as the countries threatening UK security the most.

But he also added Gaza needs peace too, "for a reset to take hold in the region and to prevent further appalling suffering of innocent Palestinians," and warned the Israeli bombardment there was "fuelling radicalisation globally". 

Russia's second-largest airport hit by hack

An airport in Russia's St Petersburg has said that its website has been hacked.

Pulkovo airport, which is located in Russia's second-largest city, has not yet revealed the cause of the hack.

The airport is Russia's second-largest by passenger traffic.