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Ukraine war latest: NATO condemns 'reckless Russian behaviour' after jets enter Estonian airspace

NATO says it has responded after Russian military jets "violated" Estonian airspace, the third violation of a NATO country's airspace by Russia in recent weeks. Follow the latest below.

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Three Russian military jets have violated Estonian airspace, officials have said.
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Zelenskyy: 'Unacceptable' violation of Estonia's airspace 'not a coincidence'

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russian jets violating Estonia's airspace is "unacceptable".

The Ukrainian leader said the incursion expands Moscow's "destabilisation" plans into new countries. 

"This is not a coincidence," he says. "It is a systematic Russian campaign against Europe, against NATO, against the West. 

"And it requires a systematic response. Strong actions are necessary, both joint and from each individual country.

"Russia must feel increasing pain from international pressure, primarily through the economy, and sanctions provide the best means for this."

UK condemns Estonian airspace violation

The UK's defence minister has condemned Russia's violation of Estonian airspace.

John Healey said the "reckless and dangerous activity" was the third such violation of NATO airspace in recent days.

"But Putin's aggression only serves to strengthen the unity of NATO and our resolve to stand with Ukraine." 

Earlier, UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper also expressed the country's solidarity with Estonia, condemning "another reckless incursion into NATO airspace by Russia".

NATO's border 'tested for a reason', Lithuania warns

Lithuania's defence minister has warned that NATO's north eastern border is being "tested for a reason" after Estonia accused Russian aircraft of violating its airspace.

Dovile Sakaliene said the incident was "hard proof" that 'Eastern Sentry', a NATO operation aimed at bolstering Europe's eastern flank, is "long due".

She added that Turkey had already "set an example" in 2015 when its air force shot down a Russian jet after Ankara said it had violated the Turkish airspace.

"Some food for thought," Sakaliene said.

Rutte: NATO's response was quick and decisive

NATO boss Mark Rutte says he has spoken with Estonia's prime minister about the violation of its airspace by Russian jets.

He says the response "was quick and decisive".

Estonia requests NATO Article 4 consultation over Russian jets incursion

Estonia has formally requested a NATO Article 4 consultation over the Russian violation of its airspace earlier today, the country's prime minister Kristen Michal said.

In a post on X, he confirmed that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, and were confronted by NATO fighters, before they were "forced to flee".

"Such violation is totally unacceptable," Michal said.

Germany says Russian violation of Estonian airspace is unacceptable

Germany's foreign minister says NATO will always be ready to defend its borders after its jets intercepted Russian aircraft that Estonia said breached its airspace.

Johann Wadephul said Moscow's violation of Estonian airspace was "unacceptable" and said Tallinn had Germany's "full solidarity".

"By intercepting the Russian planes immediately, we are demonstrating NATO is always ready to defend itself," he said on X.

NATO responds after Russian military jets 'violate' Estonian airspace

NATO says it has responded after Russian military jets "violated" Estonian airspace.

In a statement, the Estonian government said the incident involved three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets that flew near Vaindloo Island, in the Gulf of Finland, for a total of 12 minutes without permission.

A NATO spokesperson said the Russian jets "violated Estonian airspace" and "NATO responded immediately and intercepted the Russian aircraft".

"This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO's ability to respond."

Foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said Russia had already violated Estonian airspace four times this year, "which is unacceptable in itself, but today's violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen".

Estonia is the third NATO country to report an incursion of its airspace by Russia in recent weeks: On Sunday, Romania said a drone breached its airspace during a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine. Poland also reported an "unprecedented violation" of its airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones last week. Moscow denied responsibility for the incident.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the country "stands with our Estonian allies, following yet another reckless incursion into NATO airspace by Russia".

The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, its jets routinely fly over the Baltic Sea, where its Baltic Fleet is based.

EU confirms latest sanctions package proposed to member states

The European Commission has confirmed that it has proposed a 19th sanctions package against Russia to member states.

The commission's president Ursula von der Leyen said: "We want Russia to leave the battlefield and come to the negotiation table, and this is the way to give peace a real chance."

Meanwhile, the EU's top diplomat said 118 new vessels will be designated as shadow fleet and enablers, banning the re-insurance of listed vessels.

Providing more detail on the package, Kaja Kallas said the EU is proposing to take action against Russian financial evasion schemes in third countries including through crypto.

"We want to strike where Russia gets its money, no sector is off-limits," she added.

Meeting being planned between Lavrov and Rubio at UN - report

A meeting between US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is being planned at the United Nations General Assembly, according to Russian news agency TASS.

It comes after Lavrov said that he expects new contacts between Moscow and Washington over the war in Ukraine.

"We parted ways with the understanding that in Anchorage we accepted the logic promoted by Trump based on an understanding of root causes and our position," he told Russia's Pervyy TV channel, referring to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

"He did not refute this logic. Trump said he would consult with his allies."

In depth: Trump says Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than Ukraine's. Is he right - and what does this mean?

As mentioned a little earlier, among the comments made by Donald Trump during his appearance alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday was one referencing the relative number of deaths in the Ukraine war.

While conceding that Vladimir Putin "has let me down", the US president said: "He's killing many people, and he's losing more people than he's killing.

"Frankly, the Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than the Ukrainian soldiers."

The remarks represent a significant shift in tone from Trump towards Putin, who many observers accuse the US leader of appeasing - while simultaneously being manipulated by his Russian counterpart.

However, what was unclear was whether the comments also offered us valuable insight into more recent US intelligence assessments of the relative rate of casualties among Russian and Ukrainian forces.

Are more Russian than Ukrainian soldiers being killed?

While it is notoriously difficult to establish casualty numbers with absolute confidence, something that all estimates appear to confirm is that Russia has lost many more service members since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion in 2022.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies released in June indicated that nearly one million Russian casualties had been recorded - a grisly milestone that Ukrainian officials subsequently said had been passed later that month.

Perhaps predictably, this figure was denied by the Kremlin.

In January, US Intelligence officials estimated that 700,000 Russian soldiers had been killed.

This compares to the figure of around 400,000 Ukrainian casualties estimated by CSIS, the UK's Ministry of Defence and US officials.

Why are casualty numbers so difficult to determine?

The number of people killed on each side is a closely guarded state secret, subject to manipulation for strategic and propaganda purposes.

As is the case in all conflicts, the two nations have motivations to inflate enemy casualties while minimising their own.

The situation is further confused by the different methodologies employed by organisations and analysts to make the estimates - with some producing inconsistent results with varying degrees of reliability.

There is also the problem of incomplete data. Many injured and killed soldiers are left on the battlefield, and it is widely suggested that Ukraine's large number of missing-in-action personnel further complicates accurate accounting.

Why are so many more Russian soldiers being killed?

Given Russia's advantage in terms of military might and resources in general, Ukraine might be expected to have suffered more casualties than its invaders.

However, a number of factors have led to the wide disparity in the number of service members killed.

Firstly and arguably most importantly, forces that are on the offensive - as is the case for Russia's invading troops - generally tend to lose more troops.

Analysts have also suggested that Moscow is more prone to deploying large numbers of soldiers to the frontline in an effort to gain an advantage - but in a way that leaves those soldiers more vulnerable.

Other significant reasons include the apparent lack of effective preparation and planning from Russia before launching its invasion, which had a number of knock-on effects.

Most commentators say Putin and his senior military officials drastically underestimated Ukraine - both in practical terms and regarding morale and the level of motivation to defend their homeland - resulting in a shambolic start to the conflict for Russia's army.

This also allowed Kyiv plenty of time to mobilise and prepare.

While the US has withdrawn much of its support for Ukraine since Trump returned to power following his election win almost a year ago, the country has benefited from Western support and intelligence information.

Does this mean Ukraine is winning the war?

In short, no.

Russia's population (around 143 million) is four times bigger than Ukraine's (38 million), allowing Moscow to increase the size of its invading forces despite the high rate of casualties.

It has also conducted its first draft since the Second World War, with prisoners among those enlisted in the army - while people accused of crimes have had charges dismissed in exchange for them agreeing to sign up.

There are also the estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers sent to fight alongside Moscow's forces in Ukraine.

In January, a military analyst familiar with Western assessments told the New York Times there were more than 400,000 Russians facing about 250,000 Ukrainians across the front - and that the gap between the armies was growing.

Putin said yesterday that 700,000 Russian service members were currently on the frontlines - although that claim should be viewed with some suspicion, for reasons outlined above.

So is it just a matter of time until Russia triumphs?

The consensus among experts is that Russia has held the initiative in the war for the better part of the last 12 months, despite its high number of casualties.

Having said this, leading thinktank the Institute for the Study of War says a Russian victory "is not inevitable".

"Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian weaknesses to force Putin to change his calculus and engage in good-faith negotiations," the analysts said in their latest update on the conflict.

"Russian gains on the battlefield have come at a high cost... Russian forces have been advancing at a creeping pace throughout 2025, and Russia's casualty rates have been disproportionately high compared to the amount of territory seized."