Ukraine war latest: Photos show 'Russian jet that entered Estonian airspace' - as Trump says reported incursion 'could be big trouble'

Some more words to bring you now from Donald Trump, who says he believes Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to work with the US to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump said he and Xi spoke on the phone for almost two hours today and approved a deal on the future of TikTok's US operations.

He also said the pair spoke about the war in Ukraine: "I believe that he really would like to see it done also. And I think he's going to work with us to help."

Asked what his message to Xi was over Ukraine, Trump said: "It's the same as his message to me. He would like to see it done. I believe he would like to see it ended."

Sweden's military has released images which it says show a Russian fighter jet that violated Estonian airspace this morning.

It says the images were taken over the Baltic Sea after the Russian aircraft left Estonian airspace.

Donald Trump says Russia's violation of Estonia's airspace could cause "big trouble".

Speaking in the Oval Office, the US president said he was "going to have a look" at the reports.

"They're going to be briefing me in a short while, so I'll let you know about it tonight or tomorrow," he said.

Asked for his take on the situation, Trump said: "Well, I don't love it. I don't love it when that happens. Could be big trouble."

We return now to the theme of Russia's oil, and the impact of drone strikes on the country's production facilities and exports.

As reported, Donald Trump spoke yesterday of the need for European nation's to stop importing oil from Russia (see 7.02 post), while a succession of Ukrainian attacks have hit refineries in the country (see 10.30 post).

And while EU sources say the bloc will propose banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports a year earlier than planned, reports indicate that Ukraine's strategy of launching attacks on oil refineries is being felt.

Konrad Muzyka, an independent defence analyst and director of Rochan Consulting, carries a series of reports that suggest a number of areas in Russia are suffering something of a fuel crisis - with people complaining of supply shortages and sharp increases in the price of petrol and diesel at the pumps.

Muzyka says the current rate of Ukraine's strikes, if sustained, means Russia is likely to continue facing at least 30% of its refining capacity remaining out of action for up to the next six months.

"Once outages rise above 30%, Russia loses its exportable diesel surplus and is forced to draw down stockpiles," he adds.

The European Union's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has labelled Russia's incursion into Estonian airspace as "an extremely dangerous provocation".

Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, said the EU "stands in full solidarity with Estonia". 

She added: "I am in close contact with the Estonian government. We will continue to support our member states in strengthening their defences with European resources.

"Putin is testing the West's resolve. We must not show weakness."

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Donetsk region is ongoing.

Ukrainian forces have been engaged in a bitter struggle to hold the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk for more than a year, with Russian troops at times attempting to encircle the defenders there.

Reports this week suggested the situation there is worsening for Ukraine, with Russian forces controlling all supply routes and encircling the area with a "kill zone" using drones, making it harder for Ukraine to resupply troops there.

"Our counteroffensive operation in the Donetsk region - Pokrovsk and Dobropillia sectors - continues," Zelenskyy said in his nightly message.

"It was one of the most important axes for the Russians, but they failed to mount a full-scale offensive here. Our army is destroying their forces - inflicting heavy losses, taking POWs."

Ukraine's president said there will be "new deep strikes in retaliation to Russia's actions". 

While we've had plenty of condemnation from Ukraine's European allies over Russia's violation of Estonian airspace, there's been radio silence from the White House so far.

It's a similar story in Moscow, where the Kremlin is also yet to comment on the incident.

In New York, Russia's UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, told Reuters that he wasn't aware of the incident, but added: "I do not trust what Estonia is saying about Russia." 

When told about the accusation by Estonia that Russia had flown jets into its airspace, Nebenzia said: "How tragic." 

It's clear Vladimir Putin is testing NATO's resilience over its continued violations of member state's airspace, Europe correspondent Alistair Bunkall says.

Three Russian jets were caught flying into Estonia this morning, spending 12 minutes in the country's airspace before being chased away by an Italian policing mission, the bloc reported.

Estonia is the third NATO country to report an incursion of its airspace by Russia in recent weeks, with both Romania and Poland reporting similar incidents.

Bunkall says the incursion into Estonia is Russia's "biggest violation of another sovereign country's airspace so far".

"The Russians very regularly fly close to countries' airspace, including the UK's, and NATO often scrambles fighter jets to shepherd them and to monitor them," he tells presenter Jonathan Samuels.

"But actually flying into a country's airspace - and in this case, the Russian jets were literally flying towards the Estonian capital, Tallinn - that is a major violation. 

"It's clearly deliberate and clearly designed to send a form of message to Europe and to NATO."

EU leaders will discuss their response to violations by Russia of European airspace at their upcoming meeting in Copenhagen on 1 October, European Council President Antonio Costa said.

"Today's violation of Estonian airspace by three Russian military aircraft is another unacceptable provocation," Costa said in a post on X. 

"It underscores yet again the urgent need to reinforce our Eastern flank, deepen European defence cooperation, and intensify pressure on Russia." 

Earlier, Estonia's prime minister confirmed he would be seeking a NATO Article 4 consultation over Russia's alleged violation of the country's airspace.

The mechanism allows any member country to formally bring an issue to the attention of NATO's principal decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, to meet and discuss next steps with allies.

Members will consult when "the territorial integrity, political independence or security" of any members is threatened.

It should not be confused with Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance, which states an armed attack on one NATO ally will be considered an act of violence against all members and prompt assistance to the member concerned.

Discussion triggered by Article 4 could "potentially lead to some form of joint decision or action," according to NATO, but outcomes depend on consensus among members.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart has said that the North Atlantic Council will convene early next week to discuss the incident in more detail.