Ukraine war latest: 'Several big mistakes' already made by US team in talks to end war - report

Russia's army is advancing in Ukraine at the slowest pace seen in more than 100 years of warfare, new analysis shows.

After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, according to the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Moscow's offensive on Chasiv Yar, which began in February 2024, has seen Putin's forces advance at an average rate of 15 metres per day, data shows.

By comparison, French forces advanced around 80 metres per day during the infamously attritional Battle of the Somme during the First World War.

"Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is increasingly a declining power," CSIS said in its annual assessment.

In the same report, CSIS claimed Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties during its war in Ukraine - more than any major power since the Second World War.

The Kremlin has rejected the research, saying such reports should not be deemed reliable.

Here are the latest images we're receiving from Ukraine's southern Odesa region.

Officials there said a fire broke out at an industrial facility after an overnight Russian drone strike, with storage and production buildings, as well as trucks, damaged.

Ukraine's Security Service has released a video compilation of what it claims shows the destruction of more than $1bn (£723m) worth of Russian military aircraft in long-range drone strikes.

"The enemy is used to feeling safe in the deep rear. But for the special forces of 'Alpha,' distance has long ceased to matter," it said.

The accompanying video features first-person-view drone footage showing several aircraft being targeted by drones.

According to the SBU, the tally includes 11 fighter bombers, three helicopters and one transport aircraft.

Concerns are reportedly growing inside Ukraine's peace delegation over a senior US envoy involved in talks with a "shocking" lack of knowledge about the war and geopolitics.

According to the Kyiv Independent, the official, who has not been named, has made several blunders during recent conversations with reporters, including suggesting they did not know when Russia's war in Ukraine had begun.

It's also suggested the official incorrectly claimed that Kyrylo Budanov, the recently appointed head of Ukraine's President's Office, now serves as the country's vice president.

They also reportedly said the war in Ukraine has now been going on longer than the Second World War.

The remarks have heightened concern in Kyiv about the composition and preparedness of Washington's negotiating team, the report adds.

'Several big mistakes'

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine's parliament foreign affairs committee, described the situation as deeply troubling.

"This is a serious problem," he told the Kyiv Independent. "[The envoy] has already made several big mistakes - both technical and, in essence, serious diplomatic ones."

Merezhko said the official is "very naive" and "inexperienced," adding they sometimes make "shocking" statements and "do not know the basics - the fundamentals of politics, history, international law".

He also says the envoy views "territorial issues as real estate".

Russia fired 105 drones at various targets across Ukraine during its overnight attacks, according to the Ukrainian military.

It says 84 drones were shot down, but 18 strikes were recorded at seven separate locations.

We've already heard from officials in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia region who said three people were killed during overnight Russian strikes.

Officials in the nearby Odesa region said a fire broke out at an industrial facility after a drone strike there, with storage and production buildings, as well as trucks, damaged.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, authorities said two people were injured in the Sinelnikivskyi district after it came under drone attack. 

In Kryvyi Rih, a one-storey building and two cars were damaged during a drone strike, officials said.

Peace talks aimed at ending the nearly four-year Ukraine war are due to continue this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said negotiations will continue this week, either in bilateral or trilateral formats, with US participation.

But Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who took part in the previous round of talks, will not be present, he added.

Rubio said the most difficult issue in negotiations remains Russia's territorial claims to the Donetsk region.

"There is active work going to try to see if both sides' views on that can be reconciled," he said.

Answering senators' questions about the talks, Rubio said: "It's still a bridge we haven't crossed. It's still a gap, but at least we've been able to narrow down the issues set to one central one. It will probably be a difficult one."

Three people have been killed and another has been injured after overnight Russian shelling in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, officials said.

Governor Ivan Fedorov said drones struck the city of Vilnyansk at around midnight (10pm UK time), killing two women aged 26 and 50 and a 62-year-old man.

Seven houses were damaged and another was completely destroyed in the attack, he added.

Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.

We'll be starting the day with reports of casualties and damage to energy infrastructure across Ukraine following overnight Russian drone and missile attacks.

It comes after Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed yesterday that Ukrainian intelligence indicated Moscow was preparing a "new massive strike" ahead of the next round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi.

We'll have all the latest updates here in the blog, including the unfolding reports of all overnight strikes, so stay tuned.

We're bringing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine to a close for the day.

Before we go, here's a round-up of the key moments we brought you.

Five killed in strike on train

A Russian drone strike on a passenger train in northeastern Ukraine killed five people.

Prosecutors said fragments of bodies had been found at the scene of the strike ‍on the train by a village in Kharkiv. 

Footage posted online showed at least two carriages in flames next to a snow-covered rail bed. 

Watch the moment a baby was evacuated from the train engulfed in flames...

Russia suffers 1.2 million casualties - report

The Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies says Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties - more than any major power since the Second World War - and have advanced at a slower rate than almost any major offensive campaign in any war of the past century.

The Kremlin has rejected the research, saying such reports should not be deemed reliable.

Russia has previously denied estimated casualty figures originating from the US.

Zelenskyy warns of 'new massive strike'

Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a warning on social media that "the Russians are preparing a new massive strike".

He said Ukrainian intelligence suggests that's the case, and called on the US, Europe and other allies to "understand how this discredits diplomatic talks".

It came as reports suggested the US, Russia and Ukraine will hold another round of trilateral talks on Sunday, but US secretary of state Marco Rubio said Donald Trump's top envoys won't be involved.

Watch our Q&A with Michael Clarke

Military analyst Michael Clarke has been back answering your questions on the war in Ukraine.

Watch his latest Q&A in this video...

After today's reports suggesting there will be more trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia (see 14.07 post), military analyst Michael Clarke was asked whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin really want peace.

Clarke said that in Trump's case, yes, he does generally want a quick peace deal.

"The casualty figures might be very high, much higher than we thought," he said.

"We're working on the basis of probably 1.2 million Russian casualties - dead and wounded at the moment - and maybe up to half a million Ukrainian casualties."

But Clarke said that Putin doesn't want a quick ceasefire, and went on to explain why.

"He's on a roll, he's a man on a mission," he added.

"He feels as if this is his moment, both in terms of what he's got so far and the fact that he's got Donald Trump in the White House who's creating a very permissive environment for his policies.

"So he's not interested in ceasefires, and he will only get interested in ceasefires if he feels he's going to lose lots of things he thinks he's gained."

Going back to the US president, Clarke said he wants peace in Ukraine because he wants to do other deals with Russia.

"He wants real estate deals, he wants energy deals, he wants development deals, minerals deals," he said.

"He can't have those with Russia while this war is ongoing, so he wants to get the war out of the way to have his businessman approach to Russia on a much bigger range of things."