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Ukraine war latest: Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties, thinktank says - and Moscow responds

As Russia's war in Ukraine closes in on four full years, one report puts its casualties at more than a million - a figure Moscow disputes. While no diplomatic breakthrough to end that war is imminent, Donald Trump says "very good things are happening" in negotiations. Follow the latest.

Trump: 'Very good things happening in Ukraine and Russia'
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Post-war recovery agreement with US needs more work, Zelenskyy says

Ukraine ‌has identified areas in ​an agreement with the ⁠US on post-war recovery ​that ​need to be worked ‍through in more depth, Volodymyr Zelenskyy ‌says.

The ‌recovery agreement is part ​of wider deal on ending ‍the nearly four-year war with Russia.

"Work with the American ‌side is ⁠progressing actively, and ‌on the ‍Ukrainian side we are working with maximum efficiency," he said ​on X. 

Russia wouldn't seize Donbas until August 2027 at the earliest, analysts claim

Following on from our previous posts, another US thinktank has said it would take Russia at least another 18 months to seize the remainder of Ukraine's Donbas region with a pace of advance that has slowed in recent weeks.

The Institute for the Study of War says Ukraine's Donetsk region - which alongside the Russian-held Luhansk region makes up the Donbas - will fall into Moscow's hands by August 2027 if Putin's troops sustain their rate of advance. 

It says Russia "would need to expend significant amounts of resources, time, and personnel to seize the rest of Donbas".

This comes as a report in the Financial Times suggests the Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely cede the Donbas to Russia.

The White House has hit back against the report, calling it "totally false". 

Anna Kelly, the deputy White House press secretary, said the US's "only role in the peacemaking process is to bring both sides together to make a deal".

Kremlin calls report claiming 1.2 million casualties 'unreliable'

We're getting some reaction from Moscow to that report that Russian forces have likely suffered around 1.2 million casualties since the start of the war (see our previous post).

The Kremlin has rejected the research by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, saying such reports should not be deemed reliable.

Russia has previously denied estimated casualty figures originating from the US.

Combined Ukrainian and Russian losses 'could reach two million by spring'

Casualties from both sides of the war could reach two million by spring this year, according to a thinktank.

The Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies says Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties - more than any major power since the Second World War - and have advanced at a slower rate than almost any major offensive campaign in any war of the past century.

Moscow has waged a "highly destructive" air campaign on Ukrainian targets and has "been innovative in its use of drones, electronic warfare, and other facets of the fight", the thinktank says.

But it also has an "extraordinary" casualty rate, it adds, suffering nearly 1.2 million battlefield casualties - including those killed, wounded, and missing - between February 2022 and December 2025.

There were some 415,000 Russian casualties in 2025 alone, says the CSIS.

Russian casualties and fatalities are also "significantly greater" than the Ukrainians', it says. Kyiv's forces likely suffered "somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties" between the start of the war and December last year.

"Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million total casualties by the spring of 2026," according to researchers.

The CSIS says there could be several reasons why Russian casualties and fatalities are so high - including poor tactics and training, low morale and an effective Ukrainian defence.

Ukraine claims hit on Russian oil depot

Ukraine's military claims to have hit a Russian oil depot in an overnight attack.

It said on Telegram that the Khokholska oil depot in Russia's western Voronezh region was targeted, with a fire reportedly breaking out and "thick smoke" seen.

"The results [of the attack] are being clarified," the military said.

Putin to discuss Middle East with Syrian president in Moscow

Vladimir Putin will meet Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa for talks in Moscow today.

The Kremlin says discussions will focus on the "current state and future prospects of the bilateral ties in various sectors, as well as the situation in the Middle East".

The visit comes as Moscow recalibrates relations with Damascus following the ousting of former president Bashar al Assad in December 2024, despite Russia's decade-long military intervention that once kept him in power.

Doomsday Clock moved closer to midnight than ever

The Doomsday Clock has been moved closer than ever to midnight by scientists, a change that is said to signify that we are edging closer to the end of the world.

The clock, which is a metaphor for the dangers facing humanity, is updated based on perceptions about how close humans are to destroying the world - with midnight symbolising that point.

The current time has been moved to 85 seconds to midnight, down from 89, which was the previous record for the closest time to midnight.

Alexandra Bell, CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which sets the time, nuclear concerns were top of the list for the scientists, who cited aggressive behaviour by nuclear powers Russia, China and the US. 

She also pointed to Russia's continued war in Ukraine, the US and Israeli bombing of Iran and border clashes between India and Pakistan.

In pictures: Aftermath of drone attack in Kyiv

Here are the latest images we're seeing from Kyiv following overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine's capital.

Officials reported two people, a man and a woman, were killed in Bilohorodka, located on the outskirts of the city.

Overnight strikes: Port infrastructure damaged in Odesa

As ever, we're getting a fuller picture of Russia's overnight attacks on Ukraine as the morning continues.

Oleh Kiper, governor of Ukraine's southern Odesa region, reports that a Russian drone attack there has damaged residential, social and port infrastructure.

"Unfortunately, three people were injured. One person was hospitalised, and the other victims were provided with assistance on the spot," he said.

Elsewhere, officials in the Zaporizhzhia region say one person was inured as a result of "Russian shelling" on a regional centre.

Starmer discusses Abu Dhabi peace talks with Zelenskyy

Keir Starmer spoke with ⁠Volodymyr Zelenskyy ​yesterday afternoon, ​a Downing Street ‍spokesperson says.

The two leaders discussed progress made ​during recent US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks in ‍Abu Dhabi and agreed on the need ‌for a ⁠just and lasting ‌peace, according to the statement. 

They also spoke about ongoing Russian strikes affecting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including the "desperate situations many families face, including no heating or electricity, during freezing winter temperatures".