The risky move that secured Theresa May's survival - for now
Having the party whips expose Grant Shapps' half-cocked coup has forced more deadly rivals to shy away from Mrs May's detractors.
Sunday 8 October 2017 22:51, UK
When contemplating death, it's never a question of 'if', simply 'when' and 'how'. A political demise is no different.
Theresa May's political death is, by definition, a certainty. But it seems it will not come right at this moment, nor will it be at the hands of Grant Shapps.
She owes her survival to the effective, if risky, decision to get the party whips to expose the Shapps plot.
The calculation: that publicising her detractors was a price worth paying if it meant figures with more deadly potential felt the need to distance themselves from a half-cocked coup.
And it worked. Now the Prime Minister's loyalists can dismiss the plot as the scheming of an unrepresentative minority.
Speaking on Sunday with Niall Paterson, Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: "We're talking about less than 10% of the parliamentary party potentially, maybe, possibly looking for her to move on. That's not a very large number when you look at the other nearly 300 that are determined to keep her in place".
But in the flurry of anonymous mutterings reported through the political pages of the Sunday newspapers, there is a sense that the public support is conditional.
One unnamed Cabinet minister, speaking to The Sunday Times, is reported to have said: "Whether it's on Brexit or domestic policy, nothing is happening, no grip is being exercised, no leadership is being shown."
So it is perhaps with that underlying narrative in mind that the Prime Minister will seek to demonstrate there is still blood pulsing through her political muscles by flexing them in a reshuffle.
A shake-up of her top team is something many have called for since the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made his various Brexit interventions at key moments that were seen to undermine the Prime Minister.
That she did not sack him was put down to the weakness of her political position. The only thing that appears to have changed is that Mrs May now knows she might have to do it regardless.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, she said: "It has never been my style to hide from a challenge and I'm not going to start now. I'm the PM, and part of my job is to make sure I always have the best people in my Cabinet, to make the most of the wealth of talent available to me in the party."
That has been interpreted as the clearest sign yet that change is afoot, and Mrs May will be hoping that any political risk in shuffling her Foreign Secretary in favour of the new generation will be countered by vocal support from those in the party he has irked.
Leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson certainly gave the impression she could be counted among that number.
When asked about the Foreign Secretary's future, she told the BBC's Andrew Marr: "He's come out this week to say he's fully behind every dot, comma and word of the Florence Speech... and I want to see the Prime Minister hold him to that".
But the timing could, as ever, be a problem. Reports suggest any reshuffle would likely take place after the EU Council summit due to be held in Brussels later this month.
If EU leaders continue to demand the UK commits to a financial settlement well beyond the €20bn put down in her Florence speech in order for talks to move on to trade and the transition, the Prime Minister will be left in a near impossible position.
Forced to choose between agreeing to pay more, but losing the support of the Brexiteer hardliners in her party who would prefer no deal to a costly one, or opting for no deal and seeing the moderates and opposition parties rise up in fury.
The Prime Minister has indicated she's determined to survive a little longer, or at the very least feels she has a duty to do so.
A reshuffle might enable her to do that, but there remains a chance she could yet be killed off by her own before she even gets the chance.