Sky Views: Why Kim Jong Un is a slick political player

Siobhan Robbins, South East Asia Correspondent

What a difference a year makes.

April 2017 - Kim Jong Un test-fires a ballistic missile into the sea.

April 2018 - The North Korean leader is clapping along to K-pop, music he outlawed in his country, at the first ever concert by South Korean performers in Pyongyang since he took power.

The recent about-turn in his behaviour is seemingly so sharp it's enough to give politicos whiplash.

It started with his New Year's speech and a rare olive branch to Seoul that North Korea would like to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics.

What followed at the Games was a slick political charm offensive, complete with a coordinated cheer squad headed by Kim's very own cheerleader-in-chief, Kim Yo Jong.

For three days the dictator's sister dominated the headlines.

In Seoul, glossies fawned over her outfits, her make-up, her face.

And on her final day, as the South Korea's vision of the "Winter Peace Olympics" threatened to melt away with no decisive action, she hand-delivered a letter penned by the dictator himself, proposing a meeting with President Moon Jae-in and the first inter-Korean summit in more than a decade.

A dizzying slew of developments have followed in the seven weeks since.

A date has been set for the joint Korean summit, Kim Jong Un made his first foreign trip as leader, rolling into China in his bulletproof train, and most surprising of all, so-called "Little Rocket Man" (as Donald Trump nicknamed Kim) and the "mentally deranged US dotard" (as he labelled Trump) are due to meet face to face by the end of May.

So what's behind the sudden rapprochement and what are the chances of success?

Is Kim's reported request for South Korean musicians to perform the song "Belated Regret" on Sunday an insight into a new peace loving psyche?

I think not. Money is a more likely motivator for Kim Jong Un, with biting sanctions one reason behind his sudden appetite for peace.

Coal, labour and textiles exports have all been hit by recent UN sanctions cutting off key revenue streams for the isolated state.

Even old-ally and trading partner, China, eventually backed the UN getting tough after repeated nuclear tests.

Money is a more likely motivator for Kim Jong Un, with biting sanctions one reason behind his sudden appetite for peace.

Security is another factor.

Kim has apparently expressed commitment to the de-nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula but that doesn't come for free.

Pyongyang has made and broken similar promises in the past.

There's no chance Kim Jong Un will just hand over his arsenal and security blanket. Instead, he will likely demand rewards; an easing of sanctions, a show of faith for piecemeal concessions.

The security of Pyongyang would also need to be ensured and the "threat" posed by the US-South Korean alliance removed.

Even if the US reject this out of hand, the North Korean leader has bought himself time. Precious extra months to work on his weapons.

Meanwhile, the meeting with Trump will earn him political prestige at home, while on the international stage it will legitimise North Korea as a nuclear state which can bring the almighty United States to the negotiating table.

There's no doubt the planned summits offer a new chance of progress in this 65-year long conflict but in recent months Kim Jong Un has proven he can be a slick political player.

With his nuclear weapons programme at or near completion, he comes to the negotiating table with the strongest possible hand.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Paste BN editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Greg Milam - The Americans willing to forgive Donald Trump