Sky Views: Who will win the Tory Game Of Thrones?
Wednesday 22 May 2019 18:13, UK
By Beth Rigby, political editor
The rolling Brexit crisis in Westminster means that I have only made it to series five in the other epic political drama consuming my life - Game Of Thrones.
So you'll find no finale spoilers here; I am yet to find out how the story of the Seven Kingdoms ends. But I can see plenty of parallels between this fantasy drama and the real-life one playing out in Westminster.
For the battle to win the Iron Throne, like the race to win the keys to Number 10, twists and turns in a way in which the protagonists cannot control. And whoever takes the crown cannot stop the turning of the wheel. It will be the same for whoever replaces Theresa May: Changing the leader will not solve the Brexit conundrum.
But the story arc of Brexit under Mrs May is at least revealing some plot lines in the coming weeks as to who might take her crown.
For an undelivered Brexit is the perfect platform for those Brexiteers who campaigned to leave in 2016 to campaign upon again.
Had Mrs May managed to seal her deal, the fate of Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, even Michael Gove would probably have been sealed too. Her failure is their win.
A Remainer-in-Leave clothing, the Brexiteer wing of the party always had their doubts whether Mrs May was true to their cause and they have been proved right. In the end, the prime minister wasn't prepared to quit with no-deal and decided to delay Brexit not once but twice, to the fury of so many in her party.
This time around those MPs, flanked by a very pro-Brexit membership, are determined to make it one of theirs who takes over to deliver Brexit. Even pro-Remain One Nation Tories now concede it will be one from the band of Brexiteers - a Johnson, Gove or Raab - who are most likely now to succeed Mrs May.
It is testimony to the unpredictable plot twists of Westminster's Brexit drama that even three months ago, Mr Johnson looked like a busted flush. Out of cabinet and out of the spotlight, he was fading.
Mrs May had won a vote of confidence in her leadership and was trying to win more concessions on her Brexit deal. Had she been able to deliver, she might have stayed on beyond party conference and reshuffled her cabinet to promote younger pretenders to the crown.
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But events moved against her. She was unable to renegotiate the backstop to Brexiteers' or the DUP's satisfaction, and also failed to convince Labour MPs in Leave areas to back her deal. She was defeated not once, not twice but three times. And now, her final attempt to bring a repackaged Brexit deal to parliament looks dead on arrival.
We are near the final act of the May regime and the prime minister will have to decide on whether to go down fighting by bringing her deal back for an almost certain fourth defeat, or pulling the vote and setting out her departure timetable instead.
I suspect, in the end, her cabinet will instruct her not to put her deal to another vote - and her party might decide not to let her anyhow.
The next big debate within the party will be whether to now move to a no-deal Brexit or continue trying to find agreement for a deal.
This is why the 60-strong group of One Nation Tories, who cling to the liberal centre ground, came out this week with their own manifesto of what they expect from the future prime minister.
They know it will not be one of their clan who step into Number 10 this time around, but they want to at least shape the race by setting out their own mini-manifesto which promotes human rights and social responsibility.
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Their candidate will be neither Dominic Raab nor Esther McVey - both Brexiteers who are prepared to take the UK out of the EU with no deal. This group will instead fall in line behind a Boris Johnson or Michael Gove towards the end.
The latter is popular with centrist Conservatives, particularly from the 2015 and 2017 intake. Those who detest Mr Johnson see his old nemesis Mr Gove as the perfect "Stop Boris" vehicle. The former Mayor of London insists he's the broad church candidate, but for many in the party he's still too divisive and hard line to become the next prime minister.
But Mr Johnson has momentum and he is the one Labour most fear. A Labour List survey of 4,000 Labour members this week showed that 45% of them thought Mr Johnson would be the most difficult opponent for Jeremy Corbyn in a general election. The next nearest candidate was Rory Stewart, polling at 7.6%.
So the MP loathed by many has become the one to beat. Luck is on his side. Brexit could have moved in a way that served the "turn the page" batch of candidates, with the likes of Sajid Javid, Matt Hancock and Jeremy Hunt almost certainly rising to the top.
That is not to say those who don't win the crown this time around will not be waiting in the wings for another turn of the wheel. For whoever succeeds Mrs May will find themselves under the same pressure as the clock ticks down to Britain's new Brexit deadline of 31 October.
Because the options do not change with a new prime minister in Number 10. Brussels will not reopen the withdrawal agreement, parliament will not accept a no-deal Brexit, the Conservative Party will not stomach a second referendum.
Pivot to a no-deal Brexit and wait for Remainers in the Conservative Party to bring their own government down. Move to a second referendum and watch the Brexiteers do the same.
As Cersei Lannister told Ned Stark in their final confrontation before his death in series one of Game Of Thrones: "When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground."
In the Tory leadership race, the would-be heir will need to appeal to the middle ground to succeed. But the absolutists on both sides of the Brexit divide will still hold the balance of power - and they could very well depose their new ruler.
Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Paste BN editors and correspondents, published every morning.
Previously on Sky Views: Hannah Thomas-Peter - Why abortion crackdown could define the next US election