Sky Views: Brexit is the only show in town

Faisal Islam, political editor

MPs are set to return from their conference recess brimming with energy and ideas, you might think. But perhaps they should not bother. There is nothing to do.

There will not be a single controversial vote in the House of Commons between now and the meaningful vote on Theresa May's deal with the European Union, if it happens, in November or early December. Or at least that is the government's quiet plan.

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The decks have been cleared to try to avoid any close votes ahead of an expected blockbuster vote on the Brexit deal. That is avoiding any close votes on anything at all, not just on Brexit. Parliamentary boundaries? No way. Immigration policy post-Brexit? Forget it. The Irish backstop policy? You must be joking.

It is quite a state of affairs at the very moment when historic decisions that will affect the trajectory of the nation for decades are on course to be taken.

The conscious decision to strip everything out of the Commons is also precisely why some Tory Brexiteers are talking up a nuclear option - voting down part of the budget or a normally routine statutory instrument required by the Department for Work and Pensions, in order to display a show of strength in the Commons, and indeed to show some degree of leverage over the government.

This is why the budget will have to be a snoringly uncontroversial affair designed expressly to avoid any opportunities for Tory Brexiteer rebellion in the finance bill that follows.

To the extent that coherent rebellions are conjured with a hope of attracting opposition support, expect such representations and amendments to be accepted immediately. In theory, however, the DUP is signed up to support the finance bill.

With the PM also promising that the era of austerity is "over" it places severe pressure on the chancellor not to announce further tax rises or spending cuts, even though the government has already signalled some such rises to fund extra NHS spending.

Some Brexiteers believe that they can cause sufficient fuss that the budget might even have to be pulled from its already unusual date of Monday 29 October. This type of intervention would normally be considered sufficient to see the fall of a government, but the calculation of some close to potential rebels is that the Fixed Term Parliament Act allows them wider latitude to pick at some routine parts of government's legislative machinery, without risking a general election. "Why wouldn't we use every point of leverage open to us?" said one person close to the plans.

The budget will have to be be a snoringly uncontroversial affair designed expressly to avoid any opportunities for Tory Brexiter rebellion in the finance bill that follows.

Another flashpoint could be the House of Lords sending the trade bill back to the Commons next month, though a government in charge of the legislative timetable can push those issues back, too.

The opposition, too, is likely to take advantage of the desire to avoid rebellions by winning more votes on humble addresses, on the occasions it secures opposition day votes, which compel the release of secret documents.

It is a sign of determination from the government. But it is also likely to push those MPs fearful of what they see as a soft Brexit stitch-up with some Opposition MPs leaving the UK in a never-ending customs union "backstop" into increasingly desperate counter-measures. And all this is a sign of the constitutional Jenga to come after this seven-week hiatus, with the "meaningful votes" on the actual deal.

It might turn out that doing nothing can still leave MPs fairly busy.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Paste BN editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Paste BN: Adam Boulton - Take heed of PM's warning over 'dirty word'