Michael Clarke Q&A: How Ukraine could force Putin to negotiating table

Michael Clarke has just finished answering your Ukraine war questions in the past few minutes.

Scroll down to catch up on our summaries of his answers, or watch the Q&A back in full at the top of this page.

Among the topics Clarke covered were:

• The Russian campaign for the city of Pokrovsk - and what chance Ukraine has of holding the enemy off;
• Why China is benefitting from the war;
• How Ukraine could combine energy war and battlefield gains to force Putin to negotiate; and
• Donald Trump's flipflopping on Tomahawk missiles - and why he is convinced he isn't making a mistake.

Thank you very much for watching along and to the hundreds of you who submitted questions. We'll be back next week.

Russian officials and fighters have been accused of war crimes over the course of the war, with an arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin on allegations of child abductions, and Moscow's troops accused of using phosphorus bombs in their campaign to capture the city of Bakhmut. 

Asked whether Ukrainians have committed similar things, Michael Clarke says they have - but only "in a minor way".

In the early days of the war, videos emerged showing Ukrainians unloading Russian prisoners and shooting them in the leg to immobilise them.

"That's mistreatment of prisoners," Clarke says. "It was brutal to watch."

He adds that Ukraine also used Russian prisoners of war for propaganda earlier on, which is not a war crime but against the laws of war.

Different mindsets

But, he notes, there is a difference in terms of mindset between Russians and Ukrainians:

"The Russians are barbaric in the way that they're fighting in lots of respect, even in the way they treat their own people, let alone the enemy. The Russians also involve civilians as part of their war doctrine. They're not to be excluded from the battlefield as in the Geneva Conventions, they're part of the battlefield."

Unlike Russia, Ukraine also gives Western journalists access to the country, Clarke says, which creates more accountability and would see most war crimes eventually come to light.

Ukraine is not blameless, he says, but there's nothing like the extent of both daily systemic war crimes and individual acts against the laws of war that we see all the time on the Russian side. 

Countries around the world have been drawn into the war over the past four years, some directly supplying troops, such as North Korea, and Western countries stepping up to support Ukraine with billions of pounds in military aid and attempt to bring the fighting to an end.

"War always benefits somebody," Clarke says.

"When wars happen, the international economy punishes the area by ignoring it. 

"Structurally everybody loses from an area of warfare, but individual nations and companies can do very well out of it as particular beneficiaries."

He says big arms companies are now producing more than they've done over the last 20 years.

In terms of countries, Clarke says China is doing "very well" out of Ukraine in two main ways.

The first is economically: "They're selling so much stuff now to Russia. They say they're not. They say they're just ordinary, civilian components, but we all know they're not. They're dual-capable as we say."

Clarke says the second reason is political: "China is having a having a useful experience with this war because it distracts the Europeans. It splits Europe and America increasingly, and that's all to their advantage."

He says this allows to China go "unnoticed" with its actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Ukraine has been lobbying Washington intensely to supply long-range Tomahawk missiles for weeks.

The Pentagon has reportedly given the green light for the US to provide Kyiv with the weapons. Officials had, according to CNN, concluded that doing so would not negatively impact US stockpiles - leaving the political decision with Trump.

The US president himself, however, appears to have poured cold water on the prospect of it happening any time soon.

Asked by a reporter on Air Force One on Sunday if he was considering giving Tomahawks to Ukraine, he said: "No, not really."

Michael Clarke says the US president is convinced he isn't wrong on this - but he points out that Russia is clearly "worried about them".

"They worry about the range and the accuracy," Clarke says.

He adds: "If the Americans had been prepared to give enough Tomahawks to Ukraine and by enough, I'm guessing 200 or something like that, so that the Ukrainians could really go after Russia's refining capacity, military targets. Then I think that would have made a difference to Russia's thinking about continuing the war into next year."

Speaking with presenter Gareth Barlow, they both agree that the fear of this outcome is what led to Vladimir Putin calling Trump the most recent time to talk him down.

Clarke says he doesn't think Trump will change his mind, and suspects he's trying to get out of the war.

But that isn't game over for Ukraine, as there are substitutes for Tomahawk missiles.

These are:

• British Storm Shadow missiles
• And Ukrainian-made Flamingo missiles

Clarke says that if Ukraine is able to bolster its manufacturing ability of Flamingo missiles, then that could "do the job that they're presently thinking Tomahawks might do".

He tells us:

"So Ukraine they can hang on, if, you know, if this war goes into next summer, the Ukrainians might find that they've got really quite a big advantage in the ability to produce Flamingos. But you can bet your life the Russians are looking for production sites with all of the aerial bombings, which is why some... elements are now being produced in Europe to help them. But the Russians will be desperate to stop Flamingo going into really big production."

Last month, the French military boarded the oil tanker Boracay named on a list of Russia's "shadow fleet" vessels and suspected of being a launchpad for drone flights that forced the closure of airports in Denmark. 

The suspicion was that it was acting as a "mothership" for launching drones, Michael Clarke says.

Getting drones this far into western Europe would not have been possible by air without them being spotted, so they had to come from something seaborne, he notes.

Clarke says his last information was that the oil tanker was released and went south into the Mediterranean.

The captain of the Boracay will now go on trial in France next year accused of failing to cooperate with the authorities. 

But the Boracay has been released, says Clarke, adding that authorities probably didn't find what they're looking for to build a legal case against the ship. 

"It's fairly unsatisfactory from a Western point of view," he adds.

"However, they are establishing the principle that the Western nations are prepared to challenge some of these 'dark fleet' ships."

Clarke himself would be in favour of seizing these vessels and go over their insurance papers and the cargo to establish whether they are a part of the shadow fleet of unregistered, uninsured ships.

When he floated the idea with British officials they said it would invite retaliation and cause a much bigger maritime conflict.

Vladimir Putin previously denounced the French seizing of the Boracay as an act of "piracy" and warned it could provide confrontation.

But Clarke says that Western navies control the western Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea and have little to fear from Russia.

"We've got about twice as much military shipping as the Russians anyway - so what are they going to do if we stand up to them?" Clarke asks.

Ukraine is braced for a Russian winter onslaught, with the Kremlin's forces outnumbering Kyiv's in manpower and equipment.

But Michael Clarke says it's easier to be on the defensive during the winter, "especially if you're dug in and you don't have to move".

"If you're attacking, you have to keep moving forward," he explains. "You've got to establish new positions so the ground is harder to work, harder to dig in."

Clarke adds it's harder to go undetected during winter, where you lose the cover of leaves in areas that are packed with dense forests.

"Standard combat stuff stands out a lot in when you're walking in the snow on the ground," he points out.

Clarke adds that often favours the side who is better trained.

"Armies that are better at dealing with winter - and the Ukrainians are much better than the Russians are doing this - will survive the winter better," he says.

This goes back to the First World War, Clarke adds, when trench foot became a famous problem for soldiers in the wet, winter months.

"Good infantrymen know how to look after their feet and their socks and their boots because they're properly trained and they've got people nagging them to do it properly. 

"In a poor army, they leave it and they get taken off the front line."

"In general, the winter's going to be better in this case for the Ukrainians."

A long-used Russian tactic over winters during the conflict has been to attack Ukraine's energy grid, to dent morale among civilians, disrupt weapons manufacturing and weaken Kyiv.

In recent months, Ukraine has begun making use of the tactic against Moscow, ramping up its long-range drone campaigns with attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and oil refineries.

Russian oil exports are a key part of funding its war machine, and Kyiv hopes the attacks will undercut Russia's economy and force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.  

The attacks, Michael Clarke says, are having a "big effect" and hurting Russia, but it won't win Ukraine the war.

He points out that the latest attack in Ukraine's campaign came overnight, as its forces hit the petrochemical plant Sterlitamak, nearly 1,000 miles from the border.

But despite some "great success" Kyiv is having, Clarke says: "The armed forces will still get the fuel they need, you know, to the detriment of other people."

He explains:

"That [Ukraine's campaign] is putting a strain on the economy, which the Russians will feel, along with other strains on the economy... so it's not without purpose that what the Ukrainians are doing, but will it win them the war? No, it won't. It will add to the pressure they're trying to bring on Putin to think again about a ceasefire."

Clarke says to really make a difference, this energy and industry strike campaign needs to be combined with territorial gains on the ground.

He says he thinks Putin could be forced to the negotiating table if the two combine.

Watch: Ukraine strikes Crimea oil refinery

It's very difficult to independently verify battlefield reports, with journalists relying on often differing accounts from both sides.

We know Ukraine has sent special forces to Pokrovsk - Kyiv's top commander said on Sunday that they were deployed to the embattled city in an attempt to push back an intense Russian assault involving thousands of troops.

Moscow's defence ministry said a day earlier that its troops killed 11 Ukrainian soldier with the special forces who had attempted to fly via a helicopter into Pokrovsk.

So what has happened? Michael says we have little more information than the conflicting accounts of either side.

"The Russian account is entirely plausible," he says. 

Helicoptering special forces in is the best way to get them into the town, but it would be dangerous because helicopters have a big radar signature by definition, Clarke notes.

"But equally, the Ukrainians might have got them down and perhaps they lost a helicopter in the process," he adds.

One of the flashpoints of the frontline is the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.

Nicknamed "the gateway to Donetsk", if Russia takes the city, analysts say it would give Vladimir Putin's forces a platform to push forward to take swathes of new territory.

It would also mark the most important Russian gain inside Ukraine since Avdiivka in early 2024, after one of the bloodiest battles of the war.

Moscow says its troops have advanced in the city, while Ukrainian intelligence this morning said fierce battles were taking place, with special forces joining the fighting. 

Michael Clarke says Bakhmut never had much strategic value to Moscow, despite its forces fighting for the city for more than a year, because the surrounding ground was difficult to launch further assaults from, adding it had more symbolic significance.

The difference with Pokrvosk, he says, is that it's a road and rail hub, making it a genuinely strategic target for both sides. It would also make capturing the key fortress cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk easier for Russia.

"If they take those two northern fortress cities then they've got the Donbas, which is ultimately what they want to do," Clarke says.

So what's happening in Pokrovsk?

Clarke says Ukraine believes around 1,000 Russian fighters have infiltrated into central Pokrovsk in small groups.

"If the Russians can hold these island of positions and get some armour into them and solidify it, they could force the Ukrainians to withdraw," he explains.

"However, the Ukrainians have devoted the Azov Brigade, which is probably their best fighting brigade. They've already put them into Pokrovsk and held it, and they look as if they're putting in as many of the elite forces as they can spare from elsewhere."

Clarke explains that Ukraine will need to use urban warfare to eliminate the Russian presence, either by surrounding them or capturing them to make them leave.

"In a devastated urban landscape, that's a tough job, and only elite forces can really do that."

What are the chances Ukraine can hold Pokrovsk?

"I think Ukrainians have got a probably a 50/50 chance of holding on to the city," Clarke says.

"But it's tough for them. It's really tough because they just don't have the numbers. 

"And the Russians have got lots of numbers. 

"There's not much firepower the Russians can put behind the numbers at the moment, but they've got the numbers to get into Pokrovsk, and if they can solidify their position, they will."

We're live with Professor Michael Clarke for the next 30 minutes as he answers readers' questions on the Ukraine war.

As usual, hundreds of you have sent us your questions - and for the next half an hour, Michael will try and get through as many as he can.

Today, presenter Gareth Barlow is putting them to him.

Watch live in the stream at the top of the page - and you can also submit questions throughout the session.