Ukraine war latest: 'Bad news' from peace talks, admits US

The last nuclear treaty between the US and Russia is due to end in a matter of hours. 

Technically, this will remove any constraint on the number of warheads either side can collect - raising the risk of a new arms race.

The New Start Treaty, an agreement signed in 2010 between Moscow and Washington to limit their respective number of nuclear arms, has kept each side to a cap of about 1,500 nuclear weapons and total stockpiles of around 5,000 weapons.

For some context - at the height of the Cold War there were as many as 70,000 nuclear weapons of all shapes and sizes between the two nations.

But unless Washington and Moscow reach a last-minute deal, the world's two biggest nuclear powers will be left with no limits for the first time in more than 50 years.

The exact time New Start expires isn't totally clear, with some believing it will run out at 11pm UK time tonight (midnight in Prague, where it was signed).

But what's for sure is this time tomorrow, the deal as we know it will have run its course.

What Russia says and signals from Trump

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Vladimir Putin discussed the issue in a video call today with Chinese President Xi Jinping, telling him Moscow would act "carefully and responsibly".

"We remain open to exploring avenues for negotiation and ensuring strategic stability," he quoted Putin as saying.

Donald Trump has given different signals on arms control, claiming last month that if the treaty expires, he would reach a better agreement.

But Russian officials say, so far, there has been no response from Washington on a proposal by Putin to extend the limits of the treaty beyond expiry.

A new arms race?

Matt Korda, associate director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the deal's expiry doesn't necessarily mean the start of a new arms race, given the cost of nuclear weapons.

Our own military analyst Michael Clarke has a similar view, which he outlined in this week's Q&A.

"That probably won't change, because that picture is relatively stable and it suits them both," he said on the number of warheads stored by both sides.

The US has given no indication of renewing the treaty but might make a sudden decision "right up to midnight tonight", Clarke added.

In the meantime, it would actually be a good idea to take Putin up on his offer of an extension...

"Generally speaking, the Russians are always trying to make gestures to bring themselves back in from the cold, to make themselves acceptable again to the Western world. 

"On this one, sheer pragmatism says if they're offering a rollover of an essential treaty, take it. Then you've got a year to sort out what we might be able to do about some of the other things."

"Conceptually, today is a big day to the end of the best regime for war limitation that the world has seen," Clarke concluded.

Pope Leo XIV has sent a prayer "for our brothers and sisters in Ukraine".

In a post on X, the Pope says Ukrainians are being "severely tested by the consequences of renewed attacks against energy infrastructure".

"I express my gratitude for solidarity initiatives promoted by the Cahtolic dioceses of Poland and other countries, which help the population endure this period of intense cold," he adds.

We've got more from the bilateral talks in Abu Dhabi with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, saying a breakthrough may not come for a while. 

He tells reporters that the Trump administration has made great progress on negotiations compared to this time last year.

"If you look at the checklist of open items that existed at this time last year and the checklist of open items that remain now in terms of reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, that list has been substantially diminished," Rubio says.

"That’s the good news. The bad news is that the items that remain are the most difficult ones. And meanwhile the war continues." 

For context: During his election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the war in one day. 

He has been back in office for more than a full year and the war shows no sign of an immediate end.

The first day of US-brokered trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia was "substantive and productive", Ukraine's national security secretary Rustem Umerov says.

In a post that's positive but short on detail the official explains that today's meeting in Abu Dhabi, took place in a "working-group format".

Umerov notes that the US delegation included envoy Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, Josh Gruenbaum, Daniel Driscoll and General Alex Grynkewich.

He says the Russians were represented at a high military level.

"The work was substantive and productive, focused on concrete steps and practical solutions," he adds, without revealing what they might be.

Umerov says he is preparing a report to be sent to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

EU ambassadors have approved details on a €90bn loan for Ukraine, agreed by leaders at the end of last year.

The loan aims to meet most of Ukraine's financial needs as the war approaches the start of its fifth year, towards the end of this month.

Ambassadors reached an agreement in a behind-closed-doors meeting in Brussels, several diplomats told the Reuters news agency.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously criticised Europe over the loan, saying the €90bn would arrive too late.

For context: EU leaders agreed in December to provide the interest-free loan to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 after failing to commit to using frozen Russian assets as a means of funding Kyiv.

As we've reported, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping took part in talks via video call today.

Putin told his Chinese counterpart that Moscow and Beijing are an "important stabilising factor" at a time of growing global turmoil.

In a Russian state TV broadcast of the talks, Putin also praised the two countries' close energy partnership as mutually beneficial and strategic.

Xi, ​speaking via an interpreter, called for the countries to work out a "grand plan" to further bilateral relations, which he said were advancing ‍in the right direction.

Watch: Putin claims Russia and China are 'stabalising' the world

Sergei Lavrov has accused Volodymyr Zelenskyy of putting his career ahead of peace.

In comments carried by state news agency RIA, the Russian foreign minister said Zelenskyy doesn't want a deal as it would end his political career.

Zelenskyy has said on many occasions he does want a peace deal, but he is against giving in to Russia's demands - namely to cede territory Moscow's forces do not control.

For context: Russia began this war with its full-scale invasion in February 2022, despite repeatedly insisting it has no intention to do so, even in the days leading up to the incursion.

Four years later, Russia is still waging its war.

We've just heard from the Ukrainian delegation involved in trilateral talks with the US and Russia today in Abu Dhabi.

According to the spokesperson for national security secretary Rustem Umerov, talks have finished today.

Diana Davitian added they will resume tomorrow. In the meantime, will get a statement from Umerov soon.

By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

We're about to enter a world without nuclear arms control.

The last remaining treaty capping the arsenals of Russia and the US will expire tomorrow. 

It means, for the first time in more than half a century, there'll be no legal limits on their missiles and warheads, and there are fears we are on the brink of a new arms race.

"It's a serious situation," Vasily Kashin, a research fellow at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, told Paste BN.

"Probably now we can witness a lot of developments, especially in the US nuclear policy, and the situation will be quite unpredictable. 

"There is a real danger of a nuclear arms race in the coming years."

The first agreement on arms control between the world's nuclear superpowers was in 1972,  signed by US president Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.

The aim was to slow the arms race and prevent a catastrophic misunderstanding. Even at the height of the Cold War, these two rivals could agree on that.

In 1991, as the Soviet Union fell, George Bush senior and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the START treaty. 

It was the first time both sides had to reduce their arsenals and it marked the start of an inspection framework, so that each side could check the other was complying with the limits.

The most recent treaty - the New START - was signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, before being extended for five years in 2021.

On each side, the number of deployed strategic warheads is capped at 1,550, and the number of delivery vehicles is limited to 700.

That's more than enough for Russia and the US to destroy each other, but it's a cap nonetheless. 

And when this treaty expires on Thursday, that cap will no longer exist, ending decades of arms control cooperation.

How have we reached this point? 

The Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw a breakdown in Russia-US relations to the point where talks to negotiate a new treaty were never even scheduled. 

The terms of the current treaty only allow for one formal extension.

Vladimir Putin has proposed an informal rollover for 12 months, but Donald Trump so far hasn't agreed.

Some believe he's crazy not to, fearing the US will be the one that loses out if there is an arms race. But others believe it's a good move, leaving America free to compete with the nuclear build-up of other countries like China.

And China's clearly on the US president's mind - he says he wants a new trilateral treaty that includes Beijing. 

But those who've worked on these things warn that it's wishful thinking.

"We never tried trilateral [talks] actually," Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator, told Paste BN.

"Who says it's going to be trilateral? The official Russian position and the official Chinese position is that negotiations can be bilateral between the United States and Russia, or they can be five-party, including the United Kingdom and France."

So barring any last-minute deal, we're entering uncharted territory - and who knows for how long.

The strategic stability won't change overnight, but the absence of any agreement shows how far US-Russia relations have fallen.

And it could make the world a much more dangerous place.

Russian ⁠troops will keep fighting in Ukraine until ​Kyiv ​makes "decisions" that could bring ‍the war to an end. 

At least, that's according to Vladimir Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov, who made those comments just a few hours ago (see 11:34).

It doesn't appear to suggest Moscow is about to soften its demands in the war - that Ukraine give up territory Russia does not occupy in full, namely the eastern Donbas region.

NATO and European allies have consistently backed Ukraine's opposition to this.

But yesterday, the alliance's chief Mark Rutte made a comment that sparked this question in today's Q&A with our military analyst Michael Clarke...

Mark Rutte told Ukraine's parliament yesterday that "tough choices" must be made. Is Rutte referring to anything specific, such as withdrawing from the Donbas?

The answer - unlikely.

"There was nothing in that [Rutte's] statement that I saw which indicated any softening of his line, and he was bound to say that sort of thing," Clarke said.

"Privately he might be saying to them 'You're going to have to give a bit more', but if he is saying that I don't think they'll accept it."

The only possibility he could think of, he added, is that maybe Rutte - who has developed a reputation as a sort of "Trump-whisperer" - might have "made some off-the-cuff comment that he wanted to be picked up by the White House".

"...to show that he is doing all he can to support American thinking about the peace negotiations."