By Alix Culbertson, political reporter

The number of female MPs could plummet for the first time in more than a century if action is not taken now, campaigners have warned.

If Reform UK, which has led voting intention polls since April, or the Conservatives, win the next general election, women's representation would fall drastically.

A Labour win would stall the current percentage of female MPs, which stands at its highest ever at 41% (264 out of 650) - but is still lower than the UK population, of which 51% are women.

If Reform win the next election, set for 2029, women's representation could fall to 26%, analysis of Electoral Calculus polling data by 50:50 Parliament found.

If the Tories win, 33% of MPs would be women, while Labour would remain the same.

50:50 Parliament, which campaigns for gender equality in politics, is calling for people to "Ask Her to Stand" to encourage more women to get involved with politics to help balance the scales.

It has installed a "push for equality" panic button outside parliament to raise awareness of the gender disparity.

What does history tell us?

Every parliament since women were allowed to be MPs in 1918 has seen an increase, apart from small drops in 1950, 1979 and 2001.

Nancy Astor was the first woman to take her seat in the Commons and served from 1919 to 1945.

The 80s saw a substantial increase in female MPs before a large jump in 1997, and there has been a big rise from 128 women MPs in 2005 to the current 264.

Good morning and welcome back to the Politics Hub this Wednesday, 5 November.

Deputy prime minister David Lammy will be taking on his first ever session of (deputy) PMQs this lunchtime. 

The former foreign secretary turned justice secretary will be facing off against the Conservatives in the Chamber, a day after the chancellor refused to say if she will break Labour's manifesto commitments not to raise tax on working people. 

Instead, Rachel Reeves used a speech yesterday to leave the door gapingly open for further tax rises in her autumn budget on 26 November.

Now, it may be Bonfire Night, but ministers will be hoping deputy PMQs doesn't see too many fireworks flying, as they seek to tamp down on further budget speculation (and criticism) until later this month.

The reason for Lammy stepping up to the plate? Sir Keir Starmer is jetting off to the opening of the COP30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. 

The PM will be attending a number of events at the annual climate conference later today. 

Elsewhere, a landmark review into employment and barriers preventing people from working has been published.

Sir Charlie Mayfield's Keep Britain Working Review has found that:

• One in five working-age adults are now not working – 800,000 more than in 2019 - due to health reasons

• The cost of ill-health keeping people out of work is equivalent to about 7% of GDP 

• A little over half - 53% - of disabled people are employed

• Businesses lose around £85 billion a year from sickness, turnover and lost productivity

In response to those findings, the government has corralled more than 60 employers into working with them to tackle the rising number of people out of work due to ill-health.

Under the plans, businesses will develop new 'vanguards', which will be used trialled over the next three years to improve return to work rates and increase the number of disabled people who are employed.

We'll be hearing more about the plans from Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle a little later in the morning. 

Today, the independent Curriculum and Assessment review has been published, while the government is announcing new legislation to create Great British Railways, a new body who will oversee both train services and track infrastructure.

Finally, MPs and Lords will leave Westminster this evening, as both houses enter the autumn recess.

But before all that, coming up on Paste BN shortly:

• Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary
• Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party
• Andrew Griffiths, the shadow business and trade secretary

Of course, we'll bring you all the latest news and analysis throughout the day, right here on the Politics Hub.

We're pausing our live coverage for the night.

Join us again in the morning.

Did you miss today's episode of the Politics Hub?

Watch the full programme below.

Sir Keir Starmer says artificial intelligence (AI) will improve public services, put money in your pocket, create jobs and improve your children's future.

Politicians are betting the house on it - but how much are they actually spending? And on what?

Paste BN asked consultancy Tussell, which analyses government contracts and spending, to help find out.

Over £3.35bn is the overall spend by government departments on AI contracts, infrastructure and services, since the technology first appeared on the scene in about 2018. 

The number of contracts has been going up each year.

The biggest by far is a 2021 contract by the Met Office with Microsoft to build the world's most powerful weather and climate forecasting supercomputer, plus a few small contracts for departments to use its Copilot AI.

It's worth more than £1bn overall.

Another big contract is for Init - the German public transport technology company - with Transport for London, worth £259m.

But this might be surprising: one of the smallest recipients is Alphabet.

The company behind Google, and a massive AI investor, has just two contracts with the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Justice, worth £2.5m.

Fellow US firm Palantir has lots of smaller value contracts - 25 in total, worth £376m.

Its UK boss, Louis Mosley, told Paste BN that Palantir is helping junior doctors draft discharge summaries. And in defence, it helps intelligence officers collate information and process it more quickly.

Chief secretary to the Treasury James Murray was speaking to the Politics Hub a little bit earlier.

He again danced on the head of a pin by refusing to deny that tax rises are coming - but also not saying which rates will go up.

Darren McCaffrey pushes Murray on why Labour is now looking to break its manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance.

Murray initially says "what's important is for political parties to be upfront with people about what's going on - and be honest about the challenges we're facing".

But the Labour minister refuses to concede that, having been in power for 16 months, his party does carry some of the blame.

As part of the framing of the upcoming budget, the government is blaming global factors like tariffs, Brexit, Putin, forecasts, austerity and others for the need for tax rises.

Pushed again on whether it is good for governments to break its promises, Murray says that parties "go into the election with a manifesto, and as the world changes, you need to be upfront with people about how the world is".

"You know, some of [the decisions] might not always be popular, but we're going to take the right decisions for the future of the country," Murray says.

To say this wasn't the plan is an understatement.

When Rachel Reeves said last year (and many times since) that she had no intention of coming back to the British people with yet more tax rises, she meant it.

But now the question ahead of this budget, later this month, is not so much whether taxes will rise but which taxes, and by how much. Indeed, there's growing speculation that the chancellor will be forced to break her manifesto pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.

Her argument, made in her news conference on Tuesday morning, is that she is in this position in large part because of other people's mistakes, primarily those of the Conservative Party.

But while it's certainly true that a significant chunk of the likely downgrade to her fiscal position reflects the fact that the "trend growth rate" - the average speed of productivity growth - has dropped in recent years due to all sorts of issues, including Brexit, COVID-19 and the state of the labour market, she certainly bears some responsibility.

First off, she established the fiscal rules against which she is being marked by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Second, she decided to leave herself only a wafer-thin margin against those rules.

Third, even if it weren't for the OBR's productivity downgrade, it's quite likely the chancellor would have broken those fiscal rules, due to the various U-turns by the government on welfare reforms, winter fuel, and extra giveaways they haven't yet provided the funding for, such as reversing the two-child benefit cap.

After her speech this morning, in which she all but confirmed tax rises, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been sat down with LBC for an interview.

Asked if she would resign if she had to break Labour's manifesto to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, Reeves says she is "determined to finish the job" of turning the economy around.

She adds: "What would happen to the financial markets if I did that?"

Those markets were briefly thrown into chaos several months ago when Reeves appeared teary-eyed in the House of Commons and rumours swirled she was soon to leave her role as chancellor.

Things calmed down once she was given the government's full backing.

Elsewhere in her interview, Reeves says the budget later this month won't be as bad as last year's - which she maintains was a "once in a parliament" fiscal event.

She goes on to blame new independent forecasts for her having to come back for more tax.

But Reeves adds: "I'm determined to defy those forecasts. But you can't just sideline a forecaster, because, you know, we know what happens when you do that.

"That's what Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng did, and it caused absolute misery."

Pushed four times to rule out tax rises, the chancellor refuses to do so.

By Tim Baker, political reporter

Nvidia boss Jensen Huang is to meet Liz Kendall, the technology secretary, tomorrow, Paste BN understands.

The US computer hardware company is the biggest supplier of AI chips in the world, and is targeting the UK as a key area for growth.

Huang is in Britain to speak to the Cambridge Union Society tonight and receive an award at the Queen Elizabeth Prize of Engineering tomorrow.

Keir Starmer and his government have also identified AI data centres - specifically in the so-called "AI Growth Zones" as a potential area of growth for the UK economy.

And any big announcement, including investment, could help the Treasury ahead of next month's budget.

However, concerns about the impact of an increased adoption of AI - including around job losses - have been raised, especially as the government wants to find £45bn in the civil service using the technology.