North Korea tensions: Are we on the brink of nuclear war?
In the current climate North Korea misreading US military movements could lead to escalation and disaster, Dominic Waghorn says.
Tuesday 5 September 2017 20:56, UK
As a diplomatic editor I am currently often asked whether we on the brink of nuclear war.
As Hugo Rifkind reassured us in The Times on Tuesday, we are not if you mean global nuclear armageddon.
We were in the 1980s as he says, but North Korea does not have the nuclear wherewithal to threaten apocalypse beyond the region. Not yet at least.
But there is a significant risk of something catastrophic within the region and that should worry us all.
Another columnist, Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times, points out that miscalculations and misunderstandings have led to conflict throughout history.
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That currently is the worry and it is a very real one.
Imagine the next missile fired by North Korea does not fly over Japan but falls short and hits a residential area. Imagine it hits an American base. Either would demand a response.
Donald Trump is already under enormous pressure from supporters back home to strike North Korea even without any of the above.
He is also a beleaguered politician under an increasingly intrusive investigation with popularity ratings plummeting. The temptation to cause a distraction must already be almost irresistible.
Any strike by the Americans or their allies is likely to be met with a disproportionate response from the North Koreans. Bad news for Seoul, the South Korean capital.
Pyongyang has thousands of artillery pieces within range of Seoul and could devastate it if the North comes under attack or counterattack.
Then there is that risk of a misunderstanding.
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North Koreans are reared on the constant threat of war with America. Propaganda about the warmongering West has propped up the Kim regime for decades.
They are made to believe that America is itching to invade. Only the resolute determination of their dynasty of god-like rulers have saved them from this fate.
In the current climate North Korea misreading US military movements could lead to rapid escalation and disaster. It is a far from remote possibility.
We have no idea exactly what nuclear capability the North Koreans now possess. It may well have the power to lob a warhead as far as Japan, almost certainly the South.
It does not need to have that good an aim to cause utter devastation. Backed into a corner, it is perfectly possible for the Kim regime to use it.
We cannot either rule out the Trump administration using military action first. While the rest of the world seems on the verge of accepting the inevitability of a nuclear armed North Korea, for the US this is unacceptable.
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A sworn enemy with the power to strike its major cities, just imagine. US military strategists are currently weighing up the risks of that against the risks of some kind of pre-emptive action.
Back in the 1980s those old enough will remember the background fear that the world could wipe itself out umpteen times.
Hugo Rifkind is right to point out that eventually the danger passed. But Cold War scholars have since discovered how perilously close we came, a number of times through misunderstandings and miscalculations.
Only cool heads on both sides and communication between them saved the day, and the world.
The jeopardy this time is less global and more local. Quite local enough if you happen to live on or anywhere near the Korean Peninsula, of course.
But there may not currently be the cool heads and communication channels required to avert a misunderstanding and de-escalate the situation.