Michael Clarke Q&A: The two reasons behind Russia's drone incursion

That's all for today - thanks for watching and sending in your questions.

Today, our military analyst Michael Clarke covered the two reasons behind Russia's drone incursion into Poland - and what the response could be.

He also touched on the implications of Article 4, and why we should expect more of the same from NATO.

Meanwhile, there are some rumours of the Russians reaching out to Ukraine with a proposal. What's that about? Clarke explains it for you.

We'll be back again with Clarke in two weeks - with our focus next week turning to Donald Trump's state visit here. 

Until then, scroll down this page to catch up on his insights, jump straight to specific answers by clicking the links above or watch it all back in the video at the top of this page.

For the final question, Michael Clarke explains the differing attitudes and fear levels across Europe to Russian aggression.

The Baltic states

"The Baltic states are the ones that feel under most threat," Clarke says.

"So Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, three Baltic states, but you'd also say, well, Finland, which's got a long border with Russia and Poland. I mean, those are the ones that worry the most. In Denmark as well, you know, the Danes also think a lot about Russian incursions of various sorts. So those are the Baltic states that will feel that the Russians are crossing a line with these deliberate drone attacks into Poland."

The Balkan nations

Nations like Romania and Bulgaria and Montenegro are, Clarke says, more concerned with "Mediterranean security".

"They worry much more about what's happening between Greece and Turkey, what's happening with immigration across the Mediterranean. It's not that they don't take a view on Russian policy, but they don't feel as if they're in the front line."

The Iberian nations

Moving further West, Clarke explains countries like Portugal and Spain "don't want to do anything about" the recent incursions.

"They are so far away that anything they do is purely as a political support."

Moldovan elections

Clarke then goes on to warn that Moldova is due for elections in two weeks' time and there are already fears Russia is trying to interfere in a "very big way".

"Maia Sandu, the prime minister of Moldova, who is a very brave person, I think is fighting hard to maintain some integrity in Moldova," he says.

It's a very good question, our military analyst Michael Clarke says.

"It doesn't mean to say the fighting stops, but it's much harder for the offensive to carry on when the weather turns," he explains.

He says the conditions go from "wet and then cold and freezing and then wet again in the spring before things start to dry out".

Explaining the latest situation on the battlefield, Clarke says the Russian offensive "is stalled all the way around the front".

"This last month, they've made almost no gains, they claim all sorts of things which haven't been verified and don't seem to be true," he adds.

But he says Ukraine has been taking down a lot of Russian air defence assets in Crimea, and explains that you'd only normally do that if you want to "get through gaps you've created".

"In the last two weeks, I've been watching a lot of attacks on Russian air defences, the Ukrainians aren't saying too much about this and I'm just watching it to see if something else may happen," Clarke says.

He explains that it's possible Ukraine "might try some sort of surprise move before the winter".

"If Ukrainians can make Crimea feel really insecure, then they could score a strategic victory which will make Putin think about the costs of the war and what he might lose if this pendulum begins to swing against him."

Striking a government building - as Russia did in Kyiv on the weekend - is a signal, says Clarke.

"It's a signal that the Russians are prepared to go as high as us," he says.

"We will escalate and keep escalating. If you don't give in, then we'll just keep on going and we can do more."

But, as this goes on, there are "rumours", Clarke says, that the Russians have reached out to Ukraine.

Their proposition, according to those rumours, is: if you lay off our oil refineries, we'll lay off infrastructure attacks.

Clarke can't confirm that, but he says he can confirm some people do believe this has taken place through Turkey.

"It was through Turkish intermediaries, because they didn't want it to go through the United States," he says, referring to what others believe.

Michael Clarke explains he doesn't think there's a pact, but rather an implicit understanding that Russia antagonising NATO is good for North Korea and China.

As a reminder, the leaders from Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang put on a united front at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and a military parade last week.

Watch highlights from the parade...

Instead of any verbal agreement, North Korea and China can sit back and benefit as Russia sews division within NATO.

"What the Russians have always wanted is to divorce United States security from European security," Clarke says.

He explains that there's the sense Russia believes if it can do this, it could deal separately with European powers like Germany, Britain and France.

"So, you know, is there a pact to do it? I doubt that there has to be, there's an understanding that for China and North Korea, anything that weakens NATO is, by definition, good for them."

"I hate to say it, and I say this privately, but, I mean, we are now on the road to war," says Michael Clarke.

"That doesn't mean to say that there's going to be a war, but the road we are on - and that they are on - is confrontation, we're moving towards a military confrontation."

So, at what point would NATO say that enough is enough?

"What I think is most likely is something at sea," Clarke says.

"I think it would be something in the Baltic or in the North Atlantic, which is where the Royal Navy might find itself on the front line."

There would be "some issue at sea", such as cable cutting or submarine incursions, or "quite likely we start to see these "illegal tankers".

That could involve seizing a Russian ship caught trying to illegally unload oil or gas to a customer. 

"We take the tanker, and we drag it into port... we send the crew home, and then we start a legal process as to who it really belongs to... it can sit outside a port in Europe for the next 10 years, rusting away while we argue about it," Clarke explains.

"My guess is... we're quite close to that.

"I mean, Finland have already done that in case of one ship. But I think we'll start doing it.

"And if we did, that would create an incident at sea of some sort." 

It's feasible, our military analyst Michael Clarke says, though he adds he's not sure it's going to happen.

But such a move would make some difference.

"If it said it's a way of deterring regular Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities, that's plausible," Clarke says.

"But it would only work again if the US was prepared to back it up, not with combat aircraft, but with some of its facilitators and some of the intelligence and target acquisition material."

Explaining what a no-fly zone would look like, Clarke says it would be a more ground-based operation.

"Ground-based defence plus Western aircraft patrolling the skies of Ukraine prepared to take on drones or, if necessary, missiles or Russian aircraft, that would be the implication," he adds.

Despite Poland invoking Article 4, Michael Clarke says to expect "more of the same".

Clarke says Article 4 is "just that any NATO member can discuss their problem" (see our 13.20 post for more).

"By declaring Article 4 they're increasing the sense of political importance of it," he adds.

But what might come of it? 

"More of the same," Clarke says, explaining it's just a means for discussion, and talking, and not action.

Allies might vow to "tighten up our air defences" and "take a strong line like that", but action isn't guaranteed.

Clarke points out there have been multiple airspace violations since the war began.

"It's been happening in the NATO nations... they express their concern, they protest, they say we're monitoring and we'll keep on monitoring," Clarke says.

You can expect the Polish-Belarusian border to be closed for the next week or two, our military analyst Michael Clarke says.

Poland said yesterday it will close its border with Belarus at midnight on Thursday as a result of Russia-led military exercises taking place in Belarus.

Those large-scale military exercises, known as the "Zapad" drills, had raised security concerns in neighbouring NATO member states Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Zapad-2025 - which means West-2025 - will be held in western Russia and Belarus.

But those exercises are not as "big and frightening as people thought they might be," Clarke explains.

"There's no observed big troop build-up and the Russians are not there in big numbers."

However, the closure will hurt both Poland and Belarus, Clarke adds, citing the impact on trade.

"We'll all be watching these exercises to see if there's anything in there that we haven't expected," Clarke says.

"But they look as if they are a political expression."

Michael Clarke explains what NATO's Article 4 is, pointing out it has only been invoked seven times before.

The article itself says:

"The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

Poland has invoked the article on "all three grounds", Clarke says.

He points out that it comes as the defence ministers of the UK, France, Germany and Italy are meeting today.

"I think that will probably dissolve into wider meetings with the other states. As the day goes on, certainly there'll be a lot of communication online, I would imagine," Clarke adds. 

The last time Article 4 was invoked, Clarke says, was just after Russia invaded in 2022 - meaning it has been activated twice in a decade.

"Which is more than has been the case in the past, which averages once in a decade. And that tells you something, doesn't it?" Clarke says, reflecting on the increasing insecurity in Europe and globally.

For context: Unlike Article 5, which has only been invoked once, Article 4 has been invoked seven times in NATO's history.

Most recently, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 on 24 February 2022 in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.