Five different ways Brexit could change the country by Friday

As a series of crunch votes loom for the prime minister, the UK is less than three weeks from leaving the European Union.

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Upload date:June 26, 2016
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By Aubrey Allegretti, political reporter

It's finally here. After months of obfuscation, can-kicking and delaying, this could be the week that determines Britain's future in the EU.

MPs are getting ready to vote on the divorce deal Prime Minister Theresa May struck with Brussels all the way back in November.

Since then she has turned to negotiating with her own party, as hardline Tory Brexiteers and Remainers refuse to ratify the agreement.

But with just 18 days until Brexit, Mrs May has promised this will be the week when real decisions are made.

Paste BN unpicks the five different places Britain could be in by the end of the week.

:: Deal passes in parliament

Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech at Ørsted East Coast Hub on March 8, 2019 in Grimsby
Image: Theresa May hopes her deal will pass the Commons

Downing Street is crossing fingers MPs will swing into line in a bid to avoid a no-deal divorce.

But a lot of minds will need to change to make that happen, and many have said they will only support the deal if the "backstop" is removed.

The backstop is the insurance policy to prevent a hard border reforming on the island of Ireland, if a trade deal cannot be struck to prevent the need for one.

Mrs May promised to get "legal assurance" from Brussels the UK could not be trapped in it indefinitely, with no unilateral way out.

She will have to hope MPs are convinced by the comments from Brussels that they want to sort a trade deal as soon as possible.

If the deal passes on Tuesday the next step will be for EU leaders to rubber stamp it at a summit next week.

But even if all goes to plan, not everyone is convinced that means Britain will still leave the EU as planned on 29 March.

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Sunday there was an opportunity to leave on the legally-enshrined date "or shortly thereafter".

:: No-deal ruled out

House of Commons. Pic: UK Parliament/Mark Duffy
Image: MPs could get three key votes this week. Pic: UK Parliament/Mark Duffy

If Mrs May loses again, MPs will get a vote on Wednesday to express their views on a no-deal divorce.

There is talk of mass resignations from the cabinet if the prime minister tells all her MPs they must vote to keep no-deal on the table.

Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, refused to rule out quitting if ordered to do so.

She told Paste BN: "I hope and believe that the deal will get through... We will have to see what happens the day after if it doesn't."

Justice Secretary David Gauke also refused to answer five times if he would stand down to vote against no deal, finally admitting to Paste BN: "I won't support an irresponsible policy."

:: Brexit delayed

Retro alarm EU clock representing the countdown until Brexit. - Stock image
Image: The PM has promised a vote on delaying Brexit if her deal is rejected

If by Thursday MPs have rejected the deal and no deal, there is only one route left to take.

Mrs May has promised them a chance to vote on delaying Brexit, to give the UK and EU more time to come up with a compromise.

Brussels is not averse to a delay, but says there must be a specific reason for extending Article 50 - the legal trigger that takes a member out of the EU.

:: PM deposed

The donors say Theresa May's deal is not better than no deal at all
Image: Labour could move to topple the prime minister

Should the prime minister be defeated on three crucial votes on the defining issues of her premiership, her job could be on the line.

Labour has not threatened to back down from tabling "no confidence" votes in the government in a bid to topple Mrs May.

They failed last time by not securing the support of Tory MPs nor their confidence and supply partners the Democratic Unionist Party.

But with parliament's arithmetic keeping all sides trapped, some could decide a general election is the best way to break the deadlock.

:: Nothing changes

Image: Could Mrs May pull the meaningful vote altogether?

Just as Theresa May pulled the original vote on her deal scheduled for December, there is always a chance she could scrap the vote on Tuesday, subsequently killing those on no deal and Brexit delay.

There are reports the prime minister could instead table a different vote, on her deal plus the UK's proposed changes to the backstop, which could win Tory MPs' support.

That would pile pressure on the EU to accept those changes.

But Brussels has indicated it will hold firm.

All that means Mrs May will have to find another day for a vote on her deal, with less than three weeks until exit day.