Could Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald be Ireland’s first female prime minister?
If the party is to become a junior partner in government, it could come at a price including an early vote on Irish unity.
Monday 10 February 2020 19:52, UK
The political horse-trading to form Ireland’s next coalition government has not formally begun, but Sinn Fein is in a strong position to do business.
Party leader Mary Lou McDonald says she wants to become taoiseach, the first female prime minister in the country's history, but can she? Quite possibly.
Her party won the election in terms of first preference votes and, under proportional representation, is competing with Fianna Fail on seat share.
If the two parties agree a coalition, it's likely to be on the basis of Sinn Fein's demand that the position of taoiseach be rotated.
When it comes to forming the next coalition, the two ancient rivals of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael could agree some sort of "grand coalition".
But there is speculation that Fianna Fail will cross its self-imposed red line and do what was previously unthinkable: bring Sinn Fein into the government.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael had both ruled that out and it would be unpalatable to some of their members, but the political plates have shifted.
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin may feel there is no other option if he is to succeed at his third attempt to become prime minister.
He certainly appears to have softened his stance, telling journalists in his Cork constituency that "the people have spoken" and he will listen.
But Leo Varadkar, who has been taoiseach for two years, is still insisting that "coalition with Sinn Fein is not an option" for Fine Gael.
Critics of that position point out that Mr Varadkar's government has just co-brokered a deal to put Sinn Fein back in government in Northern Ireland.
The time has come for the establishment in Dublin to decide if Sinn Fein is the IRA's political wing or a bona fide democratic party.
Sinn Fein topped the poll in Leo Varadkar's constituency and in Micheal Martin's, so continuing to exclude the party could be dangerous for both men.
The party, led by Gerry Adams for more than 30 years, is either going to end up in the government or as the formal opposition.
Having won the popular vote and an unprecedented share of seats, Sinn Fein's participation in the next coalition government will come at a price.
Coalition negotiations could well conclude with a stark choice: Mary Lou McDonald as taoiseach or Ireland going back to the polls for another general election.