Conservative Party conference is the least interesting thing in politics
While the party of government is in Manchester, what's happening in London has become far more important.
Tuesday 1 October 2019 09:34, UK
In many ways, what's going on in Manchester is the least interesting thing going on in British politics.
There are a few pre-election announcements, an excruciating row about the prime minister's past conduct which Downing Street is hoping drifts away, and plenty of delegates drinking to obscure the surreal pointlessness of the occasion.
What matters much more is what's happening in London, both amongst opposition parties' war gaming the next month but also in the corridors of Whitehall ahead of Hell Month.
Despite the Benn Act designed to stop it, there is a chance that in 31 days, Britain leaves the EU without a deal. Inside the corridors of Whitehall, ministers' planning for this eventuality continues apace regardless of what's happened in parliament in recent weeks.
Ministers say there is a long way to go conditioning public opinion over no deal. They want to ensure that the EU and preferably the opposition parties too get the blame for it.
"There's a lot of thinking about the endgame," one cabinet minister said. In the "XS" cabinet subcommittee there's "quite a lot" of planning about how to ensure that no-deal is politically manageable.
Expect a big campaign in the next few weeks, ramping up the blame on the EU for scuppering a deal when it doesn't emerge. It won't be pretty, but Downing Street won't care if it works.
There is a split among allies of the PM over the electoral consequences of no-deal. Some MPs in marginal seats the Lib Dems are targeting strongly even believe no-deal will help because they hope it will mean the Brexit Party vote folding into the Conservatives, ensuring they stay on.
Other senior figures worry that the electoral consequences of no deal are significantly more precarious, and could cost the PM an election.
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There appears no agreement in cabinet about how long "no-deal" would continue, and when the UK might return to the negotiating table, with some thinking we will never go back to the table again. The political consequences of no-deal look very uncertain.